“When Israel launched its series of strikes against Iran last week, it also issued a number of dire warnings about the country’s nuclear program, suggesting Iran was fast approaching a point of no return in its quest to obtain nuclear weapons and that the strikes were necessary to preempt that outcome.
But US intelligence assessments had reached a different conclusion – not only was Iran not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, it was also up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one to a target of its choosing, according to four people familiar with the assessment.
Another senior US official told CNN that Iran is “about as close as you can get before building (a nuclear weapon). If Iran wanted one, they have all the things they need.”
Now, after days of Israeli airstrikes, US intelligence officials believe that so far, Israel may have set back Iran’s nuclear program by only a matter of months”
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“Israel lacks the capability to damage Fordow without specific US weapons and aerial support, defense experts say.
“Israel can hover over those nuclear facilities, render them inoperable, but if you really want to dismantle them it’s either a US military strike or a deal,” said Brett McGurk, a former top diplomat to the Middle East under the Trump and Biden administrations and a CNN analyst.”
“The leader of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard was killed, Iranian state television reported, in a major body blow to Tehran’s governing theocracy and an immediate escalation of the nations’ long-simmering conflict. An anchor read a statement saying: “The news of assassination and martyrdom of Gen. Hossein Salami was confirmed,” but did not elaborate. Another top Guard official, as well as two nuclear scientists, were also feared dead.
Israeli leaders said the attack was necessary to head off what they described as an imminent threat that Iran would build nuclear bombs, and they warned of a reprisal that could target civilians in Israel.”
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““We are not involved in strikes against Iran, and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region,” Rubio said in a statement released by the White House that warned Iran against targeting U.S. interests or personnel.”
“The Houthi rebels have been striking Israel throughout the war in Gaza in solidarity with Palestinians. The attack on Ben-Gurion International Airport came hours before top Israeli Cabinet ministers were set to vote on whether to intensify the country’s military operations in the Gaza Strip. The army meanwhile began calling up thousands of reserves in anticipation of a wider operation in Gaza, officials said.”
Defeating Russia in Ukraine would isolate Iran and deter both China and Russia from future aggression. China would be most deterred by a willing and strong U.S. bonded with many allies. Unfortunately, the U.S. is acting weak while at the same time damaging its alliances.
“sanctions have never made the clerical regime abandon its nuclear ambitions. During Trump’s first term, his “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign did real damage to Iran’s economy. Iran didn’t, however, concede its atomic assets.”
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” Obama’s more friendly outreach only made progress after Washington made a key concession — Iran’s “right” to enrich uranium. The Americans also made a second key concession: allowing Iran to retain a substantial nuclear infrastructure, which could ramp back up at any time. Ali Salehi, the MIT-educated nuclear engineer who was probably the mastermind behind Iran’s dual-use import network, loved the Obama agreement because it would guarantee the Islamic Republic a more advanced, better-financed atomic program that it could grow in the open. It was Obama’s permissive terms much more than the promised financial relief that induced the theocracy to sign the 2015 accord.”
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” Along the way, the clerical regime might agree to dilute its stock of 60 percent-enriched uranium, which is near weapons-grade, or even cap enrichment at a lower level. It would be a flashy concession that won’t fundamentally affect the complexion or the trajectory of Tehran’s nuclear program. The mullahs know that what matters most are protecting its new generation of centrifuges. With much greater efficiency and speed, these machines can enrich uranium to bomb-grade and can be housed in small facilities that are harder to detect.”
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“Even a stringent inspection regime, unless supported by a well-placed human-intelligence network, would find locating these centrifuges an excruciatingly difficult task.”