The strikes and war on Iran have delayed Iran’s nuclear program for up to two years. The Iranian nuclear deal that Trump abandoned in his first term delayed Iran’s nuclear program by ten to fifteen years.
Iran’s nuclear program was one of the most transparent in the world thanks to the nuclear deal with Obama, which Trump left. With the war, it’s difficult to know what Iran is doing as far as nuclear research and building.
The war may have strengthened the Iranian regime by giving Iran an outside enemy that is attacking them. When Trump talks about erasing civilization and shares maps of Iran breaking up, that facilitates Iranians believing that the US and Israel are after Iran, not just the current regime.
The Golden Dome is a ridiculous project that would require the US converging the entire world in low-orbit satellites filled with missiles, meaning the US would be holding a loaded gun over every country on Earth that would potentially counter a country’s second strike capability, giving them the incentive to strike first with numbers that would overwhelm the golden dome. It’s not a realistic solution in the first place, if built it likely wouldn’t work as it’d have to hit every launched missile or missile site before a successful nuke hit the US where even a few nukes hitting the US is devastating, and if everything worked super well, global tensions would rise as the US would be pointing low-orbit missiles at every country on Earth.
Iran expert who used to advise the White House thinks Iran was willing to do a deal that was better than Obama’s deal before the 12 day war, but not anymore.
The Obama Iran deal required 100s of workers and experts working meticulously to get done. Trump sent a couple real estate guys and then gave up and started a war which he lost.
Trump argues that the frozen assets are Iran’s money, so they should be given back at some time anyways. Although, he completely rejected when Obama gave back money that the US rightfully owed Iran in a deal that delayed Iran’s nuclear program without war.
The Iran conflict, in its low-grade double blockade form, feels like an endless cycle.
Iran has been attacked by a superpower and is technically more able to develop nuclear material than they were a decade ago…they likely want a nuke for defensive purposes more than ever.
In Iran, Trump is unlikely to achieve anything better than Obama got in his Iran-deal.
Cuban officials may be open to a Venezuela-like deal, but US domestic politics would not support it. Too many in the US want the Cuban regime completely gone.