“due to structural changes in our politics, which are largely due to a realignment in our politics based on education levels, even if the Democrats were to have a really great election cycle in the midterms, there’s going to be a limit to how many seats they can win back due to these structural changes.
If you look at Trump’s job approval on issues, he’s underwater on everything, particularly way, way lower now on the economic ratings, on inflation, and even immigration now is underwater. So you would think that his total job approval, currently around 44 percent, would be lower.
The bottom line is based on historical standards, Trump and the Republicans should be headed to a really bad midterm election. But because of these changes in our politics, due to realignment based on education, they’ll be more insulated than they would have been in the past from a tsunami-type of midterm.”
“Missouri Republicans are considering redrawing their state’s congressional lines to add another red House seat, the latest volley in a national battle over control of the lower chamber in 2026.”
“The census is a constitutionally mandated count of every person in the United States every 10 years, which was last conducted in 2020. A full census has never been conducted mid-decade in this manner, nor has one ever excluded noncitizens from the count.
Censuses are immensely important in American governance; each count determines how many House seats every state gets through a process called apportionment, and the results of the census help direct billions of dollars in federal, state and local funding.
Trump has been trying to include a citizenship question on the census since his first term, though the Supreme Court struck the effort down on procedural grounds in 2019. Apportionment numbers have also historically included people residing in the United States regardless of their immigration status.
A 2020 Pew Research Center report indicated removing noncitizens could cost multiple states House seats, including California and Texas.
Any attempt to do a mid-decade census would likely result in a flurry of legal and logistical challenges. Preparing for the decennial count takes multiple years, and planning for the 2030 census is already well underway.
It is unclear how the Trump administration plans to exclude undocumented people from the count, or if the president intended to just remove them from apportionment totals, which would also face legal hurdles.”
“Republican Gov. Mike Braun remained noncommittal about a mid-decade redistricting push following his meeting with Vice President JD Vance in Indiana on Thursday.
“We covered a wide array of topics. We listened,” Braun told reporters in response to a question about whether an agreement was reached.
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Vance’s visit to the state comes amid a push from President Donald Trump’s team to redraw maps “everywhere where redistricting is an option.” A plan in Texas is already well underway, where Republican lawmakers drew a new map that could net Republicans as many as five Republican-leaning seats, and Democrats in the Lone Star state fled in a last-ditch effort to stop the map from passing.”
“El Salvador’s congress has approved constitutional reforms to abolish presidential term limits, allowing President Nayib Bukele to run an unlimited number of times.”
Gerrymandering is anti-democracy! Every state should use a neutral commission or algorithm and make it illegal to draw districts based on helping a party, person, or ideology win an election. Voters should choose their representatives; representatives should not choose their voters!
“Mamdani’s victory was a sign that South Asians, one of the fastest growing immigrant groups in the city, are beginning to assert themselves as an influential political demographic, not just making themselves heard at the polls, but becoming more politically engaged and organized at the neighborhood level. And South Asian women are front and center of that change…
Some Indian American groups in the greater New York region opposed Mamdani, running ads on trucks and airplane banners claiming the mayoral candidate had an “extremist agenda and history of hateful rhetoric” — a reflection of rising Hindu nationalism in India. And, as the writer Yashica Dutta reported before the primary, some South Asians did not seem to be on board with, or even know, the Uganda-born Mamdani, the son of a Muslim father and a Hindu mother.
Even so, in June, as primary voting maps show, those same South Asian areas in Queens and Brooklyn that had lost Democratic support and shifted towards Trump in 2024 went decisively for Mamdani.”
“Trump managed to garner 48% of the Latino vote compared to Harris’ 51% share and significantly jumped past the 36% clip that he got during in the 2020 presidential election.”
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“47% of naturalized citizens of all ethnic backgrounds voted for Trump in 2024, compared with 38% in 2020. In that same voting bloc 51% voted for Harris in 2024, a notable drop from the 59% who voted for Joe Biden in 2020.”