NATO no longer allows temporary occupation of its territory in event of Russian attack – NYT
“Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has prompted the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation to restore its own military capabilities to Cold War-era levels, as well as to reconsider its approach to deterrence on its eastern borders.
Source: The New York Times
Details: As The New York Times wrote, NATO is rapidly moving from what the military calls deterrence by retaliation to deterrence by denial.
Previously, in the event of a Russian invasion, member states had to hold out until allied forces, mainly the US, came to their aid and retaliated to push the Russians back.
But after the Russian atrocities in areas it occupied in Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic countries no longer want to risk any period of Russian occupation. As in the first days of the Ukrainian invasion, Russian troops took land larger than some Baltic nations.
“Deterrence by denial” means, on the contrary, the permanent location of allied troops near the border with the Russian Federation, more integration of American and allied war plans, more military spending and more detailed requirements for allies to have specific kinds of forces and equipment to fight, if necessary, in pre-assigned places.”
Clarence Thomas’s brazen violation of ethics rules, briefly explained
“Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas has accepted luxury trips from a major Republican donor — and failed to disclose them — for over two decades, according to a bombshell ProPublica report that was published in early April. A second ProPublica report revealed that the same donor’s company purchased a house and two vacant lots from Thomas, a financial exchange he also did not disclose. And a Washington Post investigation found Thomas has repeatedly claimed income from a real estate company that no longer exists.
Thomas’s lack of disclosure about these trips and property sales is a clear violation of government ethics law, according to legal experts. A mistake may be behind the issue with his income statements — a new company with a similar name was formed after the first’s dissolution. That error, however, is reflective of a pattern of shoddy adherence to disclosure rules that has Thomas and his commitment to ethical conduct under new scrutiny.
Federal judges, including Supreme Court justices, are required to disclose such gifts and transactions under the Ethics in Government Act, which establishes rules for federal officials regarding what’s acceptable. As detailed by the law, transportation gifts, and most real estate sales above $1,000, need to be disclosed.
The recent reports follow Thomas’s refusal to recuse himself from litigation related to the January 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection, even as his wife, Ginni Thomas, played a direct role in trying to overturn the 2020 election results. More broadly, they serve as reminders that Supreme Court justices face limited oversight or accountability — and have long refused to publicly engage with calls for stricter ethics rules.
In the past, lodging and food provided on someone’s property have been exempted from disclosure requirements, but transportation, which Thomas accepted, has not been. Per ProPublica, the “extent and frequency” of gifts that Thomas received from Republican megadonor Harlan Crow — which included flights on private jets and trips on luxury yachts — have “no known precedent in the modern history of the U.S. Supreme Court.” The property sales that Thomas made would also not be exempted from such laws.”
Is First Republic Bank’s failure sign of a slow-motion banking crisis?
“JPMorgan Chase bought most of the assets of First Republic Bank in a deal announced early Monday, just after the federal government seized control of the troubled regional bank.
First Republic is the second-largest bank failure in US history, following Washington Mutual which collapsed in 2008 and was also acquired by JPMorgan. It comes after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank in March, which were the third and fourth largest US banks to fail, respectively.
Like Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank before it, First Republic saw a mass exodus of depositors to larger institutions, who feared that the bank would not have the capital to cover huge unrealized losses on its books due to rising interest rates. If it’s a signal of a larger banking crisis, it seems to be one that’s unfolding slowly, but it’s certainly possible that more banks could fail.”
Why Joe Biden won’t negotiate on the debt ceiling
“President Joe Biden and his staff have said repeatedly he is willing to sit down with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to negotiate a compromise on government taxes and spending.
Biden has also said, repeatedly, that he is unwilling to negotiate over raising the debt ceiling.
These things may seem contradictory. They are not, and the somewhat subtle distinction between the two is important for understanding what is happening in Washington, DC, this summer.
Congress has two important deadlines coming up.
One is the day that the US officially hits the debt ceiling, and cannot borrow more money from bond markets without further congressional authorization.
We don’t know when that day will be, exactly — but we have a guess. In a Monday letter to McCarthy and other lawmakers, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that “our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1” without a debt ceiling increase.
Once we reach that date, the federal government will not be able to pay its bills, or for things like Social Security checks, payroll for service members and other federal employees, and Medicare reimbursements. Interest payments on past debt could go unpaid, which would mean the US government would default on its debts.
The US would almost certainly enter a recession, probably a quite severe one, and the whole world could face a massive financial crisis. Beth Ann Bovino, chief US economist at Standard and Poor’s, was hardly alone in 2017 when she predicted that “the impact of a default by the U.S. government on its debts would be worse than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.”
The second deadline is September 30, 2023, the date that funding for the federal government runs out. If Congress does not pass funding bills lasting beyond that date, then on October 1, the federal government will “shut down” as it has done many times before, with many federal employees going without pay and “non-essential” services shutting down, but ordinary operations like Social Security, Medicare, and the military continuing.
Biden is willing to negotiate over the latter. He is not willing to negotiate over the former, as he reminded everyone anew in his invitation to congressional leaders for a May 9 debt ceiling discussion at the White House.
Whether he and McCarthy can navigate those distinctions and negotiate in good faith will likely determine whether the US tips into crisis in the next few months.”
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“Biden’s principled case against bargaining over the debt ceiling is that doing so is effectively bargaining over policies Congress has already passed.
When Congress passed an omnibus spending bill in December 2022, it authorized specific amounts of funding for the rest of the fiscal year, which ends on September 30.
Congress has also, through literally hundreds of bills over the years, dictated the levels of tax on personal income, corporations, payroll, tobacco, etc. The revenue from these taxes do not come close to paying for the spending Congress has also authorized — meaning it has to borrow to pay for its obligations.
So the White House sees a debt ceiling bill as simply Congress agreeing to pay for spending it’s already approved, and obeying the 14th Amendment’s dictate that the federal government must always pay its debts.
“Like the President has said many times, raising the debt ceiling is not a negotiation; it is an obligation of this country and its leaders to avoid economic chaos,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre explained in January. “Congress has always done it, and the President expects them to do their duty once again. That is not negotiable.”
By contrast, arguing over the budget is arguing over future spending, which is a proper thing for the White House and Congress to debate with each other.”
The Tigray Ethiopia War
The Tigray Ethiopia War: Video Sources
Ethiopia: War in Tigray – Background and state of play Eric Pichon. 2022 12 9. Think Tank European Parliament. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2022)739244 https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2022/739244/EPRS_BRI(2022)739244_EN.pdf War in Ethiopia Center for Preventive Action. 2023 3 31. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ethiopia Tigray War Fast Facts CNN Editorial
Why Biden is deploying more troops to the southern border
“In anticipation of a surge of migrants, President Joe Biden is temporarily deploying another 1,500 active-duty troops to the US-Mexico border days before ending a controversial Trump-era border policy that has allowed his administration to rapidly expel migrants en masse.
Set to expire May 11, the so-called Title 42 policy was first implemented by former President Donald Trump on dubious grounds that migrants could be turned away to help prevent the spread of Covid-19. But the policy has continued for more than two years under Biden, has led to lawsuits and the resignation of a senior administration official, and has become a political flashpoint on the left.
Now, as Title 42 ends, the new troops will be stationed for 90 days alongside the 2,500 military personnel already at the border. Some Democrats have condemned Biden’s decision to maintain the policy for so long and to further militarize the border. But others — particularly those in purple states who could face tough reelection fights — have backed the president’s strategy, which is designed to protect him from right-wing attacks as he runs for reelection.”
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“The administration has outlined a plan that involves opening new processing centers in Central and South America where migrants can apply to come to the US, Spain, or Canada legally, which is aimed at reducing pressure on the southern border. It will also accept 100,000 people from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras under a family reunification program.
The administration is also planning to speed up processing on the border, quickly identifying individuals who have valid asylum claims and turning away those who don’t. Those who cross the border without authorization will be barred from legally reentering the US for five years. And a new rule will also restrict access to asylum in the US for individuals who cross through another country without first applying for protections there.”
You — yes, you — are going to pay for the century-old mistake that’s draining the Colorado River
“More than 100 years ago, the US government encouraged Americans to populate rural areas like this, build infrastructure, and farm more land, according to Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University. That’s when engineers started building canals to take water from the Colorado River. At the time, the US policy was “to try to get every acre of land under the plow,” Porter said.
These canals turned the desert into a produce powerhouse. When farmland in Iowa or Nebraska is frozen and blanketed in a thick layer of snow, it’s 70 degrees and sunny in the Imperial Valley and Yuma. As soon as there was enough water in the mix, the conditions were ideal for growing crops year-round.
oday, the Imperial Valley, Coachella Valley, and Yuma together use close to 4 million acre-feet of water per year. That’s an enormous amount, equal to roughly a third of the entire flow of the river. (An acre-foot fills one acre of land with one foot of water and is roughly what two average houses use each year.)”
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“In determining the share each basin would get, water officials ignored inconvenient science and massively overestimated the river’s average flow. Western water users each got a piece of the river, but — together with water later allocated to Mexico through a treaty — those pieces turned out to be more than what it can offer in a typical year. (The 1922 decision also failed to spell out what shares would be given to the 30 or so tribal nations in the basin.)”
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“water officials didn’t factor in the possibility of a changing climate. Decades of recent warming have been drying out the West, causing less water to flow into the river.”
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“Conserving water obviously sounds like a great idea. The problem is that farmers in these regions are already highly efficient. Water-saving technologies are also pricey, and farmers I spoke to are concerned that any future payments won’t be enough to cover them.”
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“I’ve spent the last few weeks searching for a good solution to the crisis, an end to this story. No source I found could offer one. Any effort to restore the river will mean some people (or animals) get less water, barring several more winters like this one. And there’s no way around that, no secret technology to grow food without water. “It’s just such a complicated, ugly problem,” Schwabe said.
It’s an unsatisfying conclusion. Then again, maybe that’s what climate change creates: ugly problems where everybody loses. The best thing we can do, perhaps, is to sober up to this reality — that climate change will reshape economies and human lives — and use that knowledge to prepare.
Scientists have known for decades that the Colorado River is over-allocated and that warming is drying out the basin. Yet water regulators have failed to act in a meaningful way to rebuild Lake Powell and Lake Mead, Schwabe said. They should have started overhauling the Law of the River years ago, he said, instead of always being in “crisis mode.”
“The longer you wait to act, the more drastic your action has to be,” Schwabe said. “If we had started making these cutbacks in the ’80s and ’90s, in incremental steps, we probably wouldn’t be talking about this today. The situation is dire because we failed to act previously.””
The 100-year-old mistake that’s reshaping the American West
“The Colorado River, which supplies drinking water to seven states in the US and two in Mexico, is the lifeblood of the American West and beyond. It’s drying up at an alarming rate, threatening cities, industries, agriculture, and energy sources. As it shrinks, rich ecosystems across its 1,450 miles are also disappearing.”