Five Questions for Stephen Kotkin: Advice for the New Administration (and the Rest of Us)

NATO was a defensive alliance of pacifists with small military budgets. It was not a threat to Russia and not Putin’s reason for invading Ukraine.

If Nixon really did make the comment about the madman theory referring to a part of his strategy in Vietnam…it didn’t work.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8wTBy_tgKo

Putin is playing Trump (again)

“Putin, meanwhile, has had the measure of his Washington opponents — and on Thursday, he demonstrated he understands Trump’s psychology. Praise the man while deflecting him; pat him on the head — something Ukraine’s passionate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy almost fatally forgot to do in his Oval Office meeting last month, prompting a hasty ejection from the White House.
There was no firm Russian nyet to stoke the U.S. leader’s anger, rather a teacher’s applause for Trump’s idea and effort.

The temporary truce was “correct” and “we support it,” the Russian leader said, but, alas, there were many sticking points. Ukrainian units had nearly been encircled in a salient in Russia’s Kursk region and could be forced to “surrender or die,” he explained. Why should they just be let go? “If we stop hostilities for 30 days, what does that mean? That everyone who is there will go out without a fight?”

During the pause in hostilities, will Ukraine be able to mobilize fresh troops and receive weapons from the West? “How will supervision be organized? These are all serious questions.” He then added: “I think we need to talk to our American colleagues … Maybe have a phone call with President Trump and discuss this with him.”

It was all drawn from the playbook that he and his lugubrious Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have used time and again: Obfuscate, delay, muddle, throw in some whataboutism, be sorrowfully unctuous, but make sure to dangle a carrot.”

““Trump is much more concerned about this deal than about Ukraine,” Bondarev said. “That gives Putin leverage.””

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-is-playing-donald-trump-again-russia-ukraine-war/

Putin’s capabilities are suffering, Ukraine can still win | General Sir Richard Shirreff

Russian victory is not inevitable. Russian territorial progress has been slow, by May 9th Russian will have lost a million soldiers killed or wounded, Russia has about a year’s worth of armored vehicles left, Russian logistics is using: civilian vans, golf buggies, and donkeys, and the Russian economy is making huge sacrifices to support the wartime economy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMI6tc05Jzk

Towards a New Nuclear Arms Race? Putin, the Breakdown of Nuclear Treaty Limits & MIRVs

Nuclear weapons are on the rise–more of them, more dangerous ones, more advanced ones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSnZLWjOkHU

How Trump’s 2nd Term Will Change Europe Forever

Trump made peace with the Taliban, stopped fighting with them directly, pulled out U.S. forces, leaving behind a rump force, and agreed to fully pull out during the next term, which ended up being Biden’s term, leaving Biden the choice of reneging on Trump’s deal and restarting the war directly with the Taliban which would require more troops, or pull out.

Hitler stole land with the threat of military force and with military force, Europe allowed it hoping Hitler would be satisfied. This history is reminiscent of Putin’s actions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZmB1eCiaNs

North Korean troops helping Putin is a ‘grave’ threat to the world, Seoul says

“South Korea’s spy agency said Friday it believes North Korea has already begun deploying four brigades totaling 12,000 troops, including special forces, to the war in Ukraine.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/north-korean-troops-helping-vladimir-putin-grave-threat-world-seoul-yoon-suk-yeol/

Former national security adviser says Trump can be manipulated with flattery

“H.R. McMaster, former national security adviser to former President Donald Trump,..said that Trump needs “a competent team around him” because he is susceptible to being manipulated.”

“He added of the Republican presidential nominee: “People know kind of how to push his buttons, especially buttons associated with maintaining the complete support of his political base.””

“In an excerpt published in the Wall Street Journal, McMaster lamented how Russian President Vladimir Putin pushed Trump’s buttons: “Putin, a ruthless former KGB operator, played to Trump’s ego and insecurities with flattery.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/25/mcmaster-trump-russia-putin-manipulate-00176287

Russian Escalation Strategy in Ukraine – The North Korean Deal, Kharkiv & Putin’s “Ceasefire” demand

Russian Escalation Strategy in Ukraine – The North Korean Deal, Kharkiv & Putin’s “Ceasefire” demand

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTXwmcIfY0Y