‘Already in 1993/1994, [Russia] had begun to make threatening language and gestures toward its neighbors. In 1994 the president of Estonia made a speech about how happy Estonia was to be a member of Europe and about the reemergence of a threat from Russia. He was already hearing language from Russia threatening Estonia sovereignty and whether Estonia was really an independent country. At this speech, the deputy mayor of Saint Petersburg, Vladimir Putin, walked out. The language of threat from Russia began in the 90s. In 2005 there was a large cyber attack on Estonia. This is why these countries wanted to join NATO, because they felt a reasonable direct threat from Russia.’
NATO is not a direct threat to Russia’s homeland, and it is only a threat to Russia’s interests if Russia has the intention of dominating its neighbors. Russia’s interest in Ukraine is not primarily defensive, but imperial.
There was almost no U.S. military presence in Eastern Europe until Russia stole Crimea with military force.
The global south’s response to Russia’s invasion has been disappointing because it is not just a European issue. The invasion violates the global norm that you don’t change borders by force.
“U.S. Cyber Command paused offensive operations aimed at Russia for a day earlier this year as a negotiating tactic, House Armed Services Committee cyber subcommittee Chair Don Bacon (R-Neb.) confirmed Friday.”
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“While Bacon did not elaborate on the negotiations, the pause likely happened around the time Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was visiting the White House to negotiate a minerals deal with President Donald Trump — a deal that fell through after a contentious Oval Office meeting.”
“A huge fire that burned the largest shopping center in the Polish capital Warsaw to the ground a year ago was set deliberately by people acting on behalf of Russia, Donald Tusk said Sunday.
European countries, particularly those in the east of the bloc, have been plagued by Russian espionage in recent years. Arson attacks are another common tool used as part of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy.
“We now know for sure that the great fire of the Marywilska shopping center in Warsaw was caused by arson ordered by Russian special services,” Tusk said. “Some of the perpetrators have already been detained, all the others are identified and [are being] sought. We will get you all!”
Tusk had said in March that evidence from Lithuania suggested Russia was to blame for the attack, in line with suspicions in Poland, but his statement on Sunday was unequivocal in assigning responsibility to Russia.
The Lithuanian investigation found that a May 9, 2024 arson attack on an IKEA store in Vilnius, as well as the May 12, 2024 Marywilska fire, were set by Ukrainian citizens acting on behalf of Russia, Tusk wrote in March. A week earlier, Polish prosecutors had said a Belarusian refugee was responsible.”
“If Washington truly abandons its role as the world’s police officer, Europe would struggle to counter Russian President Vladimir Putin’s army, at least in that time frame. Many European countries, especially Germany, have neglected their own military in recent decades. While Russia has converted everything to a war economy, parts of Europe have only just woken up from the dream of a peaceful world. Military experts proclaim that it will take more than four years to manufacture an arsenal of conventional weapons of the size needed to counter a Russian invasion. While most observers consider a Russian attack on Germany unlikely, even this is not an impossible scenario.
That’s why, to deter Russia, Germany and Europe need their own nuclear shield.”
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“relying solely on France seems risky especially with French nationalist Marine Le Pen, a known Russia sympathizer, or another figure from her nationalist party potentially taking over the Élysée Palace in the near future. A broader European solution also involving Britain’s nuclear capabilities — and possibly Poland as a front-line state — would be far more prudent.”
Ukraine is hurting, but so is Russia. Russia is offering higher and higher pay for fighters, and will soon have to force more people into the military. They will also run low on equipment. If Ukraine had consistent support from partners, Russia would soon be in a tough position.
Defeating Russia in Ukraine would isolate Iran and deter both China and Russia from future aggression. China would be most deterred by a willing and strong U.S. bonded with many allies. Unfortunately, the U.S. is acting weak while at the same time damaging its alliances.