For the moment, Hamas and Israel have a cease fire. The most likely outcome is things returning to the pre-war status quo: a terrorist theocratic dictatorship in Gaza who is determined to destroy Israel and kill Israelis, and Israel waiting for the next opportunity to “mow the lawn” while continuing West Bank settlements and maintaining control over that territory.
“When Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire in January 2025, on the last day of the Biden administration, President Joe Biden demanded credit. “This is the exact framework of the deal I proposed back in May. Exact,” he said. Of course, that raises the question—if the deal was on the table earlier, why didn’t Biden secure it then?
That ceasefire fell apart after only two months. Seven bloody months later, the Trump administration has finally brokered a new one. President Donald Trump, like Biden before him, wants the credit. “BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS!” he declared in his announcement of the ceasefire, waxing biblical. (Trump also, bizarrely, tried to credit his tariff policy for the truce.) But like Biden before him, Trump deserves scrutiny for the violence that dragged on when a deal was already on the table.”
“the return of the 20 remaining living hostages who had been taken by Hamas. The terrorist group is still looking for the remains of the 28 hostages they killed, to hopefully return the bodies to the families of those still grieving their loss. Meanwhile, 2,000 Palestinian prisoners were released back to the West Bank and to Khan Younis, in the Gaza Strip, to fulfill the terms of the deal.
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“The main issue still hasn’t been solved: Hamas’s weapons,” Akram Atallah, a London-based Palestinian journalist, told The New York Times. “The Israelis are demanding Hamas disarm, which is not a simple administrative measure. Hamas was founded on the basis of bearing arms.” The most likely possible outcome looks like Hamas refusing disarmament, the Israeli military responding with some amount of continued surveillance and physical presence in the Strip, and some amount of conflict bubbling up sporadically.”
Israel’s decision to go into Gaza City, Hamas’s remaining stronghold, helped get Hamas to agree to a cease fire. Israel’s failed strike on Hamas in Qatar helped put countries like Qatar on notice that Israel was serious, and helped get them to more strongly support a deal. Trump sending people perceived as close to himself as negotiators helped convince Middle East actors that Trump was serious about a deal and that these negotiators negotiated on his behalf. Trump made very strong demands that effectively would amount to a Hamas surrender. Hamas agreed to some, but quibbled with others. Trump just accepted the yes and said we’ll figure out the other stuff later, creating a cease fire.
The United States military is making extrajudicial illegal killings of potential drug traffickers, apparently killing a boat of Colombians this time. The U.S. is threatening a regime change war with Venezuela.