‘A Sword and a Shield’: How the Supreme Court Supercharged Trump’s Power

The Supreme Court has been significantly changing presidential and executive power.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fDQg28O1EM

Can Trump ban trans athletes from school sports?

“Trump could strip away civil rights and nondiscrimination protections enumerated under the Biden administration, which specifically apply to trans students.
The executive branch has a lot of control over what counts as discrimination in education, thanks to Title IX, a civil rights law originally meant to advance women’s equality. The Biden administration took the position that the law’s protections against discrimination “on the basis of sex” mean that discrimination against trans students on the basis of their trans identity qualifies as sex discrimination.

That interpretation of the law faced legal challenges and has been rejected by about half of the states. The Trump administration can — and likely will — simply take the stance that Title IX offers no protections to trans students.”

https://www.vox.com/lgbtq/385378/trump-trans-kids-sports-ban-schools-title-ix

What RFK Jr. can — and can’t — actually do as Trump’s health secretary

“There is a more realistic move Kennedy could take to address his concern about vaccine side effects: He could resuscitate the National Vaccine Program Office, which monitored vaccine safety with particular rigor but was shuttered under the first Trump presidency.”

“The US began fluoridating drinking water in 1945. An estimated 209 million Americans now drink tap water that contains added fluoride. The intervention is considered a historic public health win: It dramatically reduces tooth decay in children and also reduces tooth loss in adults.”

https://www.vox.com/health/385541/rfk-jr-trump-hhs-vaccines-fluoride

America’s reactionary moment is here

It’s not conservatism. What we call the conservative movement today is not what the conservative movement historically has been in the United States. It’s a species of reactionary politics. The distinction rests in the party’s fundamental attitude towards democracy and democratic institutions.
The old Republican Party, for all of its faults, played by the political rules. It had faith in the idea that elections determine the winner, and that when elections happen, you accept the verdict of the people and you adjust based on that regardless of whether or not you like the policy preferences.

Reactionary parties are different from conservatism. They both share an orientation towards believing that certain ways in which society is arranged — certain setups, institutions, even hierarchies — are good and necessary. There’s value in the way that things are. What differs between the two of them is that conservative parties don’t see potential social change as an indictment of democracy. That is to say, even if a democracy or an election produces an outcome that they don’t like, that threatens to transform wholesale certain elements of the social order, a conservative would not throw out the political order as a consequence of that. Reactionaries are willing to do that.

My view is, at the core of the Trump movement, which I want to distinguish from every Trump supporter because they’re not the same, but the people who have given Donald Trump an iron grip on the Republican Party, that base of hardcore support, are animated primarily by reactionary politics, by a sense that things have gone too far in a socially liberal and culturally liberal, and even in some cases economically liberal direction, and they want things to go back to partially a past that never existed, but also a past that did exist where there was a little bit more order and structure in terms of who was in charge and what the rules were.”

“Coming into office last time, Trump didn’t have a vendetta against large chunks of the government. He didn’t believe an election had been stolen from him and that needed to be rectified. At the very least, he thinks it is a public blemish that needs to be shown to be false to many people, because if many people believe that he won, then that’s good enough. It doesn’t matter if he actually did. What matters, to put it differently, is Donald Trump’s honor, and the honor of Donald Trump must be avenged at all costs, and the insult of 2020 must be erased from the history books. That’s the kind of thing that he cares about.

The degree and scope of the planning that has gone into this and the willingness to take a hammer to different institutions and the specificity of the plans for doing so is not normal. To name just one example from Project 2025, they want to prosecute the former Pennsylvania secretary of state who presided over the 2020 elections using the [Ku Klux] Klan Act, which was passed to fight the first Klan. It’s basically alleging that by trying to help people fix improperly filed mail-in ballots in 2020, this Pennsylvania secretary of state was rigging the election, trying to undermine everyone else’s fair exercise of their votes in a way akin to the Klan intimidating Black voters in the 1860s by threatening to lynch them.

When I speak to legal experts about this, they’re like, “No credible prosecutor I know would bring such a charge.” It’s a real abuse of power and anti-democratic in many ways because it’s trying to wield federal power to prevent local authorities from administering elections properly and helping people vote. So in order to try to even begin an investigation on this front, let alone actually prosecute, what you need to do is fire the people who would do that kind of job, which would typically be in the Justice Department Civil Rights Division role, so the Election Crimes Unit and the Criminal Division, fire those people who work on these cases, bring in attorneys who are willing to do what you say, even though it’s ludicrous on the basis of a traditional read of the law, and then initiate an investigation, try to get charges spun up, and then get them to a judge like Aileen Cannon, who’s presiding over Trump’s documents case and has clearly shown herself to not really care about what’s going on, but rather just to interpret the law in whatever way is most favorable to Trump.

All of that stuff, and this is just one specific example, illustrates the ways in which doing what Trump and his allies have outlined as part of their revenge campaign requires attacking very fundamental components of American democracy: the building blocks, like the rule of law, like a nonpartisan civil service that treats all citizens equally, like a judiciary that’s designed with interpreting the law as best as it can, rather than delivering policy outlines, you need all of those things in order to act on already offered promises in what is widely understood to be the planning document for the Trump administration.”

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect-podcast/386100/2024-election-trump-republican-party-reactionary

Peter Navarro Should Not Have Power Over U.S. Trade Policy—or Anything

“American consumers and businesses bore roughly 93 percent of the cost of Trump’s tariffs, according to one analysis by Moody’s. The U.S. Trade Commission concluded in 2023 that American companies and consumers “bore nearly the full cost” of the tariffs Trump levied on steel, aluminum, and many goods imported from China.”

https://reason.com/2024/12/04/peter-navarro-should-not-have-power-over-u-s-trade-policy-or-anything/

This obscure budget procedure could be Trump’s biggest weapon

“The official definition of “impoundment,” per the Government Accountability Office (GAO) that oversees the practice, is “any action or inaction by an officer or employee of the federal government that precludes obligation or expenditure of budget authority.” In other words: any time someone in the federal government doesn’t spend money that Congress has ordered it to spend.

This takes two forms: rescission, and deferral. In rescission, the spending is simply canceled, while in deferral it is withheld temporarily, in theory to be spent in the future. Under the Impoundment Control Act, passed in 1974, both rescissions and deferrals can be passed by Congress at any time, and they can also be requested by the president. But any presidential requests have to be approved by Congress to take effect, and that has happened quite rarely.”

“The GAO has also recognized a practice called “programmatic delay,” which it views as not technically impoundment but which is closely related. Programmatic delays occur when the government is trying to spend money Congress has instructed it to spend, but factors outside their control preclude this. The GAO has offered as an example a program in which the government is supposed to provide a certain amount of money in loans, but where there are few applicants so the program simply cannot lend out the total amount Congress has set aside for this purpose.
Another more recent example was Biden’s executive order upon taking office instructing a pause in the construction of border walls and fences with Mexico. While Congress had appropriated money specifically for border barriers, the GAO ruled that the Biden administration was merely “programmatically delaying” the project, because the delays were chalked up to environmental reviews and other hurdles that it was legally required to clear before continuing construction.

Programmatic delay does offer the executive branch some flexibility in spending, but only a bit. Otherwise, the Impoundment Control Act is very clear: The president cannot refuse to spend money that Congress has told him to spend. The GAO is empowered to challenge the president if it sees this limitation being contradicted, as it did when Trump withheld funds from Ukraine in 2019. In that case, the funds were eventually released and the incident led to Trump’s impeachment.”

“The power becomes truly interesting, however, if Trump insists upon cuts that Congress will not approve. One could imagine a repeat of the 2017 fight to repeal Obamacare, except, when enough Republicans defect to doom the effort in Congress, Trump and Vought opt to simply impound funds for the Medicaid expansion and Affordable Care Act premium subsidies unilaterally. This would inevitably provoke a legal challenge that could make its way to the Supreme Court.”

https://www.vox.com/politics/388393/donald-trump-congress-impoundment-budget-supreme-court

How immigration swung voters of color to Trump

“Trump’s share of the Black and Latino vote increased by 8 points each between 2020 and 2024.
Analysts have proposed several different explanations for those shifts, including sexism within communities of color, pessimistic views of the economy and inflation, disinformation, social class and the ongoing ideological sorting of nonwhite conservatives into the Republican Party. While there’s probably merit in some of these, my analyses suggest that one of the biggest factors behind Trump’s growing support from nonwhite voters may be opposition to immigration.

There are two main reasons for this. First, nonwhite Americans’ attitudes about immigration moved sharply to the right during President Joe Biden’s term. That resulted in a much larger pool of Black and Latino voters who were receptive to Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric. Second, voters of color with conservative immigration attitudes were especially likely to defect from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024 — even after accounting for other plausible reasons for these changes.”

https://abcnews.go.com/538/immigration-swung-voters-color-trump/story?id=116016407

The 2024 presidential election was close, not a landslide

“because of its winner-take-all nature, the Electoral College isn’t a good measure of closeness. Imagine an election where one candidate wins every state and district 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent. That candidate would romp to a 538-0 victory in the Electoral College, but that election was obviously still very close. The same principle was at play in the 2024 election: Trump won six of the seven major swing states (Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) by 3.2 points or less. And he won Wisconsin by just 0.9 points, Michigan by just 1.4 points and Pennsylvania by just 1.7 points.

That’s important because if Harris had won those three states (plus all the states and districts she actually did win), she would have gotten exactly 270 Electoral College votes.”

“if Harris had done just 1.8 points better across the board — or even just in those three states (although that’s not usually how elections work) — she would be the president-elect right now.”

“There have been 20 presidential elections since the end of World War II, and in only six of them was the tipping-point state decided by a smaller margin than Pennsylvania was decided by this year.”

“the same is true if you look at the Electoral College margin, Trump’s main claim to landslide status. His likely 86-electoral-vote margin over Harris is larger than the 77 electoral votes he won by in 2016 or the 74 electoral votes that President Joe Biden won by in 2020. But it’s smaller than the 126 electoral votes that Obama won by in 2012 and the 192 electoral votes that Obama won by in 2008. And once again, it is only the 14th-biggest Electoral College victory since the end of World War II.”

“Another way to assess the closeness of an election is, of course, the national popular vote. While the popular vote doesn’t affect who actually wins the election, it can be relevant in discussions of how big of a mandate the winner has to govern. By this measure as well, 2024 was a historically close election. Since the end of World War II, only three elections had popular-vote margins smaller than Trump’s current 1.6-point lead: 1960, 1968 and 2000.”

https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-presidential-election-close-landslide/story?id=116240898