Trump’s New Trade ‘Deal’ With the E.U. Leaves Out Beer, Wine, Booze

“Americans who enjoy German lagers, Belgian saisons, and Czech pilsners will get no relief from the higher tariffs that President Donald Trump has poured on their favorite brews.

The deal locks in the 15 percent tariffs that Trump has imposed on most European goods imported into the U.S., but it also serves as a promise from the Trump administration not to target European goods with product-specific tariffs that could be announced in the coming weeks or months—including potentially huge new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, something the White House has been teasing for months. The deal also creates a pathway for the United States to reduce its tariffs on European cars to the 15 percent threshold, once the E.U. reduces some of its own tariffs on American industrial goods.”

https://reason.com/2025/08/22/trumps-new-trade-deal-with-the-e-u-leaves-out-beer-wine-booze/

‘Tariffs Will Simply Put Us All Out of Business’: Trump’s Trade War Is Crushing American Crafters

“As President Donald Trump’s tariffs make life less affordable and predictable for Americans, they’re also threatening to make it less creative. American craft stores are struggling to keep up with ever-changing trade policies, which are making the foreign-made products they stock more expensive and difficult to access. Many foreign craft supply companies are now unable to ship to American consumers at all.”

https://reason.com/2025/08/28/tariffs-will-simply-put-us-all-out-of-business-trumps-trade-war-is-crushing-american-crafters/

China’s Shadow Moves: Ukraine, State Capitalism, and AI Ambitions | China Watch

Trump’s tariffs are likely to produce a record trade surplus for China as imports from China are frontloaded.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ze8fbNgsZ0s

Why the U.S. is on the Precipice of a Recession — ft. Mark Zandi | Prof G Markets

Hiring is so low, it’s almost like we have a hiring freeze across the country.

The U.S. is on the edge of recession directly because of Trump policies–tariffs, immigration crackdown, DOGE cuts.

Hyperinflation around the world regularly happens after an executive takes control of a central bank and makes it cut interest rates.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5F8o9z1-Nc

EU faces first test of fragile trade truce with Trump

““Deals with the Trump administration simply do not create the kind of lasting certainty everyone is desperate for, because certainty, predictability and strict fidelity to treaties are not White House objectives,” said Dmitry Grozoubinski, a former trade diplomat and author of the book “Why Politicians Lie About Trade.””

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-faces-first-reality-check-fragile-trade-truce-donald-trump/

How China’s $285M Export Hub in Brazil Will Cost U.S. Billions | WSJ Center Point

Because of the trade war, China is getting more agriculture goods from Brazil than the U.S.. China is building a port in Brazil to get even more from Brazil and even less from the U.S.. Too bad for U.S. farmers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4l_wHA8kvk

Boss Time: Summits, Cold Wars, and Universities, with Condoleezza Rice | GoodFellows

Companies are worried about quarterly earnings. The U.S. does not have a plan B for long-term research. We need to maintain the funding and focus on research in universities. Many technologies that are changing the world today are based on university research from decades ago.

Trump’s trade agreements are not trade agreements. They are not even trade deals. They are more press releases. It’s likely that many of Trump’s tariffs won’t even be legal under U.S. law.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-HvpdbtJSA

The Art of the Empty Trade Deal

“The Trump administration claims its tariffs are drawing countries to the table for tough negotiations. Yet in 2016, TPP partners were already there, ready to sign an agreement that closely reflected U.S. trade standards and practices, having overcome significant domestic hurdles. The TPP’s multilateral negotiating framework actually provided an efficient mechanism for participating countries to modernize their existing bilateral free trade agreements, and it augmented less comprehensive pacts like NAFTA and the Korea-U.S. agreement (KORUS).

The White House claims its new trade deal with Japan pushed “breakthrough openings” in agriculture and food, but the real groundwork was laid a decade earlier, when Shinzo Abe took on Japan’s powerful farm lobby in 2015, clearing the path for the TPP and softening resistance to liberalized agricultural trade. The TPP would have covered virtually all goods, including politically sensitive products like Japanese rice.

The 2025 deal also hardly qualifies as a “free trade deal,” with imports from Japan into the U.S. still subject to a 15 percent reciprocal tariff rate. Those tariffs are a tax on American businesses and consumers.

The TPP, by contrast, was slated to roll back 18,000 individual tariffs, making it “the largest tax cut on American exports in a generation.”

Building trade policy on headline‑driven, ad hoc bargains is an unstable strategy—made more precarious when the very tariffs they hinge on rest on contested executive authority. These arrangements may create the illusion of momentum, but without enforceable commitments or structural durability, they offer little of the stability that comprehensive trade agreements provide. The TPP demonstrated how a well‑designed pact could lock in reforms, deepen alliances, and shape the rules of global commerce for decades. Washington’s drift toward improvisation risks ceding that ground to others who are willing to play the long game—and win it.”

https://reason.com/2025/08/07/the-art-of-the-empty-trade-deal/

Trump’s trade deal is killing a British industry

“Vivergo’s plant is now at risk of closure due to the U.K.-U.S. trade deal, which allows 1.4 billion liters of tariff-free American ethanol into the British market. It’s a volume Vivergo’s managing director Ben Hackett says is equivalent to the entire U.K. bioethanol market.
Unless ministers intervene, 160 staff at Vivergo — one of only two major bioethanol producers in the U.K. — will lose their jobs from Aug. 18. Thousands more in farming and haulage will also feel the impact.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-trade-deal-us-uk-wheat-farming-ethanol-market/

Did Trump Just Trick the E.U. Into a Trade Deal? | Raging Moderates

Prof G and Jessica Tarlov are big fans of Hilldog.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5dgHs_wIkE