Middle Eastern oil producers are producing less oil because they can’t ship as much due to the war.

Middle Eastern oil producers are producing less oil because they can’t ship as much due to the war.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8MqBuaD5Xw

The US has nowhere near enough ships in the area to escort many ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

The US has nowhere near enough ships in the area to escort many ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruOkuy3Tqv0

Ships Stranded at Hormuz: 1 March 2026 Update | Is the Strait Open or Closed?

Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is limited, but not closed. In the Red Sea, shipping could go a longer way around, but there is no alternative route for shipping in and out of the Persian gulf. This will likely increase the price of oil.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcdNGlbep1M

Ukraine’s New BOPP Strategy: The Big Oil Power Play

The hitting of refineries in Russia is creating a gas shortage that may impact civilians. This could eventually weaken Russians’ support for the invasion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvha2sVzAFE

Oil Prices Fall, Tesla Robotaxi Debuts, & Trump Media Grifts | Prof G Markets

Trump Media Group grifting Trump supporters by a large buyback. Instead of investing in the businesses, the company is raising money to put it in Trump’s pocket. Trump owns 60% of the stock, so a buyback makes him richer. Buybacks are normally done by profitable companies to reward their shareholders. Trump Media Group is not profitable. They raised money via an equity sale and then bought back their stock, essentially transferring some of the money raised into Trump’s pockets. (Discussion of this begins at 21:37).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0KLHBPsObc

Trump Is Sabotaging His ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ Agenda

“”I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus-year career,” said one survey respondent. Another respondent called “uncertainty” the “key word to describe 2025,” adding, “There cannot be ‘U.S. energy dominance’ and $50 per barrel oil,” a stated goal of the Trump administration. (The current cost of oil is about $70 per barrel.) At that price, “We will see U.S. oil production start to decline immediately and likely significantly (1 million barrels per day plus within a couple quarters). This is not ‘energy dominance.'”

“The administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets. ‘Drill, baby, drill’ is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry,” one comment succinctly said.

It’s not just Trump’s rhetoric that has the energy industry on edge; it’s his trade policies, too. One respondent noted that tariffs “immediately increased the cost of our casing and tubing by 25 percent.” Another said, “Washington’s tariff policy is injecting uncertainty into the supply chain.””

https://reason.com/2025/03/28/trump-is-sabotaging-his-drill-baby-drill-agenda/

China’s weak economy and record US production will lead to a surplus of one million barrels of oil a day next year, IEA says

Surely, Trump won’t dishonestly take credit for this.

“The oil market could see a major supply glut in 2025 thanks to booming production from non-OPEC states like the US and sagging demand in China, according to the International Energy Agency.
The IEA said in its November Oil Market Report that the world’s oil market is on track for a one-million barrel-a-day surplus next year.

The excess is largely being driven by a weakening economy in China. Demand for oil in the world’s second-largest economy contracted for six straight months in a row as of September, IEA data shows. This accounted for the “main drag” on demand this year, the report said.

Meanwhile, the agency is predicting strong oil production among non-OPEC producers led by countries like US, Guyana, Argentina, and Brazil.

Altogether, non-OPEC producers are on track to expand oil production by 1.5 million barrels a day, it estimated. That amount is more than the agency’s forecast for world oil consumption to grow by 990,000 barrels a day next year.”

“The US has become the largest oil producer in the world, pumping out more crude than any other country in history for the last six years in a row, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Domestic production hit a record 13.4 million barrels a day in August, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.”

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/chinas-weak-economy-record-us-042533492.html

Stuck Behind an SUV? Blame Me.

“The move to regulate fuel economy came about a few years earlier, following the 1973–74 Arab embargo that suddenly ended the flow of oil from OPEC nations. In the face of skyrocketing oil prices, Congress froze gasoline prices to protect American consumers from pocketbook shock. Then came the hard part. Elected officials sought to require U.S. automakers to build the smaller, more economical cars that unquestionably would have been built had gasoline prices been allowed to rise freely. Yet the fuel economy standards hit passenger sedans hard while leaving light trucks, which were not seen as passenger vehicles, almost untouched.
As the fuel economy standards began to bite consumers, they found that trucks provided comfort and safety no longer available in the downsized sedans. Truck sales surged, and in 1990, Ford placed a four-door body on a Ranger truck frame and introduced the Ford Explorer, a passenger vehicle that satisfied the government’s truck definition. This inspired an explosion of similar SUV production across the industry. Trucks became beautiful, expensive, and highly desirable.”

“All the while, the fuel economy standard for trucks remained less strict than for sedans. To make things even better for U.S. producers, almost-prohibitive tariffs on European light trucks were extended to the rest of the world. Many foreign producers eventually jumped the tariff wall and built trucks and cars here, but the home-grown industry enjoyed an early advantage.”

Why oil prices are up and what it ~ means ~ for you

“OPEC+, meaning the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and its allies, the plus sign, announced it would cut production by over 1 million barrels of crude oil a day. For some context, there are about 100 million barrels of oil produced worldwide each