The ships and crews that Trump is blockading are not just Iranian ships and crews. Is the US going to steal or sink foreign ships? What if Pakistani or Chinese military vessels escort their ships? Will the US start a war with these countries to enforce the blockade? Ships’ crews can lock themselves in the bridge and engine rooms, which will stop boarders from controlling the ship, what will the US do then?
Trump may have gotten the US into a trap. He left the deal Obama made with Japan, and similar ones were on the offer, but he rejected them and instead chose war. Now the US may be stuck between either a massive ground invasion of Iran or Iran as a new great power.
For Iran to win, all they have to do is survive and maintain an ability to commit terror attacks. Thus far, the US has failed to end Iran’s ability to hit Israel, hit gulf states, hit US bases, and stop shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
So far, the US has failed to achieve any objectives obviously worth the costs of the war. Iran is still unfriendly. Iran hasn’t agreed to any long-term commitments. They still have the ability to strike death and terror in the region and to damage the global economy.
If regime change or a long-term commitment is not going to be reached, then continuing to mow the lawn is likely not worth the costs, so it’s better to quit now than to take further costs. But, quitting now does mean the US failed in anything but destroying a bunch of stuff. Iran will quickly rebuild their drones and missiles and remain a terrorist state.
“About six months before the first U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, the Trump administration gutted the Bureau of Energy Resources (ENR), an 80-person team within the State Department tasked with leading international energy diplomacy. The cuts were part of the then Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative to reduce the federal workforce, with the goal of slashing the federal budget.
More than a month into the conflict—with President Donald Trump indicating he will redouble attacks on Iran in the coming weeks—former ENR officials are warning DOGE eliminated key roles that would have helped the administration navigate and mitigate the energy chaos of the conflict and its impact on global oil markets, as well as foresee potential consequences of ongoing actions.
Fortune spoke with two former ENR officials—who wished to remain anonymous out of fear of retribution from the department—who are sounding the alarm on the insights and knowledge the federal government has lost as a result of the cuts, especially during a period of widespread oil and energy disruptions.
“It’s shocking how poorly prepared the administration is,” one former employee told Fortune. “You took away the people with the expertise and contacts who would be insanely useful in this context.””