Trump’s Saudi Arabia deal may be a lie. Multiple countries have promised to invest big money in the U.S. in deals with Trump, and many have not materialized. Is this a real deal, or a misleading press release?
Economists have simplified models that are very simple compared to the complexity of the real world. This means a model will inevitably leave out parts of the economic world. But, trying to fit too much in, makes the model unreadable and it’s hard to tell what’s happening in the model and therefore it doesn’t teach us much. A good model helps explain something that is happening, even if it is flawed and doesn’t explain everything.
In places where wealthy people want to be and are not just there for tax advantages, higher taxes often don’t make many wealthy people leave. Keeping high-skilled professionals is more important to a city than keeping super wealthy people.
“Trump is carving out his own brand of capitalism — launching extraordinary federal interventions in the economy through ownership stakes in private companies alongside sweeping tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation. But the way he’s using these tools isn’t really guided by a discernable economic strategy
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Trump’s policies, taken together, are more like “an idiosyncratic hodgepodge.””
“While speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Friday, President Donald Trump claimed that “every price is down,” including those paid at the pump. Gas is now “almost $2,” he added.
Gas is not $2 a gallon. The national average is a little over $3 a gallon, about the same as it was a year ago, according to AAA. Even if you’re giving Trump wide leeway for that “almost,” this is what would have been called a gaffe in more normal political times. Remember when President George H.W. Bush didn’t know the price of a gallon of milk?
When you zoom out to Trump’s larger point, things get even more confused. Despite Trump’s claim, prices as a whole continue to rise at politically inconvenient rates. Annualized inflation was 3 percent in September, the most recent month for which data is available. Prices for food and housing are rising faster than overall inflation. Most Americans say they are spending more on groceries now than a year ago.
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This is the point where I’d normally point out that presidents don’t really exert much influence over prices. There is no “lower gas prices” button in the Oval Office. Yet while it’s true that market forces are the primary reason any price is what it is, this administration has taken a number of actions that directly and deliberately put upwards pressure on prices.”
“Freezing the rent: Mamdani’s signature campaign promise was to freeze the rent for more than 2 million tenants living in rent-controlled housing. But the city’s cost of living has grown unabated despite decades of rent control—which, coupled with restrictive zoning, has made the city’s housing shortage worse.
$30 minimum wage: There’s good reason for New Yorkers to be skeptical of Mamdani’s plan to raise the minimum wage. When the city raised the minimum wage to $15 an hour in 2018, the predictable result was increased unemployment and black markets in labor. Nearly doubling the current minimum wage of $16.50 by 2030 would produce similar consequences.
“Free” buses: On the campaign trail, Mamdani promised to eliminate the fare on every city bus to make them “fast” and “free.” The plan would cost taxpayers $600 million–$800 million annually and likely result in slower speeds, which is what happened when the city piloted five fare-free bus lines in 2023 and 2024.
Government-run grocery stores: Mamdani has proposed not-for-profit, government-run grocery stores—subsidized to the tune of $140 million a year—to reduce prices at the checkout counter. New York’s grocery stores, like others across the country, operate on razor-thin margins. The profit motive isn’t to blame for high grocery prices; inflation and supply chain disruptions are.
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$5 billion corporate tax: Naturally, Mamdani promises that you won’t pay for his multi-billion dollar programs—greedy corporations will! If Mamdani manages to convince state lawmakers to increase the city’s corporate tax rate from 7.5 percent to 11.5 percent, New Yorkers should expect companies to reduce salaries, benefits, and headcount to remain in business. Some might opt to abandon the city altogether, leaving the taxpayers of the People’s Republic of New York to foot the bill for their socialist utopia.”