According to interviews with people who have been in the room with Trump as president, Trump isn’t playing 4D chess or putting on a front. Trump actually has nonsensical economic and foreign policy views. He thinks trade deficits are what determine whether he should be friendly or mean to a foreign country. He believes the US would be strong if not for the huge impact of political correctness holding us back. Trump has limited moral values in foreign policy and just wants to make what he views as good one-on-one deals. Trump seems to be a legitimate Iran hawk. Trump formed his views during his formative years based on what was happening at the time and based on his gut, and he just sticks to that, even if his gut intuitions are nonsense.
When it came to the war with Iran, Trump was convinced that the regime would fall. He was less convinced by Israel’s persuasion and more by Iran’s lack of response after the 12-day war and Israel’s success in that war.
The CIA told Trump that Iranian regime change was not likely, but Trump believed in his gut that it was.
Risks, like the Strait of Hormuz, were presented to Trump, but super softly. Trump was advised by a small group of scared yes men. Only Vance seriously tried to dissuade him.
When the Justice Department is used to seek Trump’s revenge rather than justice, the US is not a strong democracy.
“The Justice Department has removed the career Miami federal prosecutor leading the investigation into John Brennan, after she resisted pressure to quickly bring charges against the former CIA director and prominent critic of President Donald Trump, according to people briefed on the matter.
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The investigation into Brennan is focused on one of the president’s longest standing political grievances — the 2017 intelligence assessment that found Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election to help him.
Trump’s demands have taken on more urgency for the Justice Department after Trump fired former Attorney General Pam Bondi, in part because of dissatisfaction at the slow pace of cases he wants brought. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has redoubled efforts to satisfy the president’s demands as he seeks to keep the job after Bondi’s ouster.”
Iran could hit a US carrier with a hypersonic missile, but hitting a moving carrier and not getting shot down while the missile itself it moving and partially blinded by the plasma created by its extreme speeds…is very difficult, and it’s not clear how many of these missiles Iran has, or if they work.
Trump is purging the CIA of people who contributed to reports with evidence that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election. Trump is punishing people for doing an appropriate job while also weakening U.S. intelligence on Russia.
“The Iranian parliament, led by the charismatic Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, was trying to limit the power of the monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Mossadegh nationalized the oil fields, provoking a British blockade, while also clashing with the shah over domestic policy.
Mossadegh trusted the United States as a neutral mediator, but the feeling wasn’t mutual. The Eisenhower administration suspected that Mossadegh was too close to communists, and the CIA supported a coup d’etat by destabilizing the country. In August 1953, after months of protests subsidized by the U.S. and the U.K., monarchist generals in contact with the CIA surrounded Mossadegh’s house with tanks, bringing the shah back to near-absolute power.
Instead of allowing Britain to regain its dominance over Iran, the Eisenhower administration forced Iran to accept an American-led oil consortium. And the CIA helped train the shah’s fearsome new secret police, the SAVAK. When the shah finally fell in 1979, young revolutionaries took revenge by raiding the U.S. embassy, which they called a “den of spies,” and holding everyone inside hostage for more than a year. That began a 46-year conflict that continues to this day.”