So far, the US has failed to achieve any objectives obviously worth the costs of the war. Iran is still unfriendly. Iran hasn’t agreed to any long-term commitments. They still have the ability to strike death and terror in the region and to damage the global economy.
If regime change or a long-term commitment is not going to be reached, then continuing to mow the lawn is likely not worth the costs, so it’s better to quit now than to take further costs. But, quitting now does mean the US failed in anything but destroying a bunch of stuff. Iran will quickly rebuild their drones and missiles and remain a terrorist state.
Trump’s tariffs haven’t much limited goods coming from China to the US because China just ships them through third-party countries. The administration talked about cracking down on this, but haven’t really done it.
“In internal deliberations before the war’s launch, Hegseth had pointed to Iran’s muted reaction to Trump’s past attacks as evidence that calibrated force could impose costs on Tehran without triggering a broader war. Hegseth “was caught off guard. There’s no question,” says a person familiar with his thinking.”
If this is true, it is the height of incompetency. The US and Israeli attacks were not limited, they assassinated the leader of the country! The most likely response from Iran would be huge. Yet, the Trump administration seemed to have not expected this.
There are some pipelines that go around the Strait of Hormuz, but they, and the ports they lead to, can’t handle the same load as the Strait. New projects to go around the Strait have been discussed, but are very expensive, while the Strait blockage will likely be temporary.
Satellites make helping an ally with intelligence much more powerful. China is helping Russia against Ukraine with satellite intelligence. The two authoritarian countries are working together to invade a democracy.