Fareed’s Take: Trump’s tariffs have caused a seismic shift in world affairs

The U.S. created a world based on relatively free trade. Most benefited from it. Now Trump is pulling us back from that world, and most people, including most Americans, will be hurt by that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4wiPYWVV_4

Trump’s Tariffs and Japan Deal Could Encourage Toyota To Move Manufacturing Jobs Out of America

“With a series of short-sighted tariff maneuvers, the president has effectively told Toyota (and other Japanese carmakers) that it should do more of its manufacturing in Japan and stop trying to create jobs in America.

Earlier this week, President Donald Trump announced a new trade deal with Japan that will include a 15 percent tariff on Japanese goods, including imported cars. The details of the deal remain somewhat vague, but that’s a significant discount compared to the 25 percent tariff the administration has imposed on cars imported from everywhere else.

The reduced tariffs for Japanese cars are significant because of how that provision interacts with the Trump administration’s other trade policies that are aimed at making it more expensive to manufacture cars in the United States. The president has imposed a 50 percent tariff on steel and aluminum (both of which are essential for automakers) and has slapped a 25 percent tariff on imported cars and car parts. Those tariffs are already dinging the profits of American carmakers—General Motors reportedly lost more than $1 billion in the second quarter of the year—and auto industry experts say they will raise prices, reduce demand for new cars, and generally make American cars less globally competitive.

In short, the Trump administration is offering an incentive to import finished cars from Japan, while making it more expensive to buy the stuff you need to build cars in America.

Ultimately, the problem here is not the specific tariff rates the Trump administration is seeking to charge on steel, car parts, or cars imported from Japan or Mexico. (Those rates are likely to change anyway, if the past few months of the trade war are any indication.)

No, the real problem here is the Trump administration’s belief that it can use tariffs to shape the global trading system toward contradicting goals with no tradeoffs or distortions. In reality, each new tariff move causes both. The market responds to incentives, and right now, the Trump administration is creating a set of incentives that will raise costs for American manufacturers while driving investors overseas.”

https://reason.com/2025/07/25/trumps-tariffs-and-japan-deal-could-encourage-toyota-to-move-manufacturing-jobs-out-of-america/

Yes, Tariffs Are Raising Prices

“All taxes are paid by someone, and President Donald Trump’s tariffs are no exception to that rule. The question of who pays and in what amounts is likely to become even more of a focal point in the coming days and weeks, as the White House follows through on its threat to hit imports from dozens of countries with higher tariffs starting on August 1.

Economic data from the past few months, during which the Trump administration hiked tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, China, and elsewhere, provide a preview of what’s to come after the August 1 tariffs hit: Higher prices for Americans.

That is, of course, what economists say tariffs do. Raising prices is really the only function of a tariff—which artificially inflates the price of imported goods to make them less attractive than domestic alternatives. Economists will also tell you that’s not the whole story. They say that domestic producers often raise prices as well, since imported competing goods are now more expensive. They also say that tariffs on raw materials and intermediate parts—like the Trump administration’s levies on steel, aluminum, and the parts necessary to build a car—will push up the cost of building other, more complex goods, and those higher costs will be passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices.

There have been “relatively quick price responses to tariff announcements,” report a group of economists connected to the Harvard Business School’s Pricing Lab, which tracks prices throughout the economy. In a paper updated earlier this month, the Harvard economists report that there’s been a “cumulative increase in imported goods prices since early March” of approximately 3 percent. The paper relies on data from four major U.S. retail chains.

Their data show that prices for both imported and domestic goods have climbed since Trump took office, with foreign-made goods increasing more quickly thanks to two noticeable leaps that occurred right after Trump’s tariff announcements in early March and early April.

https://reason.com/2025/07/29/yes-tariffs-are-raising-prices/

Did Trump Just Trick the E.U. Into a Trade Deal? | Raging Moderates

Prof G and Jessica Tarlov are big fans of Hilldog.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5dgHs_wIkE

Europe Caves to Trump on Tariffs

Trump’s EU trade deal is only a win if a 15% tax on imports from Europe is a win. Things from Europe being more expensive, and importing companies making less money, are bad for the economy and the people in it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6htfcWxknU

What if economics is wrong about scarcity?

Existing economic theories are based on scarcity, but a lot of scarcity of key needs are imposed by powerful actors and are not an inherent part of the world. There’s enough food for everyone. There’s enough healthcare resources and home-builders to provide for everyone. But, these goods are based on profits and profits are best maximized not by providing for everyone, but by tailoring services to those with money.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YR2FcHoQLlU

California’s Minimum Wage Hike Cost 18,000 Fast-Food Jobs as Employment Ticked Up in Other States

“The law transferred wealth from workers who lost their jobs to those who didn’t.”

https://reason.com/2025/07/16/californias-minimum-wage-hike-cost-18000-fast-food-jobs-as-employment-ticked-up-in-other-states/

Scott Bessent Takes Premature Victory Lap on Tariff Revenues

“The revenue undoubtedly came from a surge in imports to the U.S., which led to payments that filled federal coffers. It would seem to be a win for an administration that has staked an awful lot on waging a trade war with the entire planet to (take your pick) redress wrongs done to America, raise revenue for the government, and encourage domestic manufacturing and employment. But that victory lap comes too soon; the tariff windfall more likely represents efforts by U.S. firms to accumulate inventory before tariff rates rise even higher.”

https://reason.com/2025/07/18/scott-bessent-takes-premature-victory-lap-on-tariff-revenues/

Liberation Day 2.0 Is Here — When Will We See the Tariff Fallout? | Prof G Markets

The U.S., being the more innovative and intellectual property driven country, gets more value in trade from many countries even when we have a trade deficit. Trump trying to mess with such relationships is foolish. China really was/is a bad actor and needs to be dealt with strategically.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHL7Kqz9tSM