The new Syrian government has allowed and committed murders of multiple ethnic minorities. Syria seems to have replaced one authoritarian state with another. The Kurds were crushed by the government after Trump abandoned them.
The US allowing Iran to ship its oil while Iran stops most others, except those it gives permission, is a sign of weakness from the US. Trump isn’t willing to face the pain of much higher oil prices. If Trump isn’t willing to take such pain, then why would Iran agree to any significant demands?
The 2k or so marines sailing toward Iran from the Pacific, leaving two weeks after the war started for some reason, are not numerous enough to take and hold contested land, like Kharg Island, without heavy casualties. They may be able to make a beachhead in the province of Baluchestan where: the land is further away from the Strait of Hormuz, further away from Tehran, the US has better air supremacy, a landing would be surrounded by open lands where an Iranian attack could be easily seen, and the locals may be sympathetic because they are a different ethnic group and religion than the Persians and already have separatist rebels.
Former US Colonel Peter Mansoor says Trump thought Iran would surrender just from air attacks and didn’t have a plan for if they didn’t. He also said the war is unconstitutional, and that while a part of him is happy to see Iran get pain after killing hundreds of Americans in the Iraq war, most of him worries that Trump doesn’t have a plan and has opened a can of worms.
Trump initially said he was a militaristic guy but that he was against dumb wars like the war in Iraq. He later shifted to a more peace-focused rhetoric when he realized that was popular. But, he never had a strong belief in peace and always believed in the use of leverage and military force.
Ships are turning toward Iranian islands, checking in with Iran, and then moving on if they are one of the few allowed ships. Iran controls the Strait.
An F-35 may have been hit by an Iranian anti-air missile. The plane and pilot survived, making it safely to a base in the Middle East. Stealth makes the F-35 harder to detect and hit, but not invisible. If a video given by Iran purporting to be the F-35 getting hit is real, then it looks like a smaller payload delivered by a relatively short-ranged infrared or electro-optically guided weapon, or even a shoulder fired missile. If a radar guided weapon targeted it, the plane would sense it and the pilot would be trying to avoid it. And if larger, longer-range weapons hit it, the plane would not have survived that size of payload.