Did Trump Just Trick the E.U. Into a Trade Deal? | Raging Moderates

Prof G and Jessica Tarlov are big fans of Hilldog.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5dgHs_wIkE

Europe Caves to Trump on Tariffs

Trump’s EU trade deal is only a win if a 15% tax on imports from Europe is a win. Things from Europe being more expensive, and importing companies making less money, are bad for the economy and the people in it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6htfcWxknU

Liberation Day 2.0 Is Here — When Will We See the Tariff Fallout? | Prof G Markets

The U.S., being the more innovative and intellectual property driven country, gets more value in trade from many countries even when we have a trade deficit. Trump trying to mess with such relationships is foolish. China really was/is a bad actor and needs to be dealt with strategically.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHL7Kqz9tSM

The Biggest Risks and Opportunities in Latin America — ft. Monica de Bolle | Prof G Markets

Trump’s threatened tariffs on Brazil for them prosecuting a former president for crimes he appears to have committed have appeared to backfire as the current president is getting a polling bump from Trump’s unjustified threats.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bowcbk9W50A

Trump’s New Trade Deal Has a Clear Winner: Vietnam

“in fairness, tariff-free trade into Vietnam is good news for American farmers and manufacturers that export goods to that country, as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has argued. And the reduction in tariffs may marginally increase our exports to Vietnam.

For the vast majority of Americans, however, trade with Vietnam matters on the buying side, not the selling side. For them, this deal accomplishes very little.

The deal also sends a clear signal to other countries that Trump’s promise of reciprocity was bullshit.

Free trade between the U.S. and Vietnam would be a win-win for both countries. That’s not what Trump has delivered with this deal. Vietnamese businesses and consumers got free trade. Americans got more taxes.”

https://reason.com/2025/07/03/trumps-new-trade-deal-has-a-clear-winner-vietnam/

What to Expect From Trump’s New Trade Drama

Trump’s tariffs have actually retarded U.S. manufacturing rather than bolstered it due to uncertainty and tariffs raising the cost of manufacturing inputs. From the Trump tariffs already put into effect, we haven’t seen huge price jumps as companies frontloaded their inputs to buy time and haven’t yet made pricing decisions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USjlhMDX90w

Deals or No Deal? Trade Lunacy is The New Normal | Raging Moderates

Two percent of working Americans get tips. If you are a waiter who gets tips, you get a tax cut, but if you are a dishwasher who doesn’t get tips, you don’t get a tax cut. If you are getting tips and stay within the bill’s 25k limit, you aren’t paying much taxes to begin with.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNjSrXnMY4Y

Trump Undermines His Own South Korea Trade Deal With New 25 Percent Tariffs

“If Trump’s goal here is to strike deals that will lower foreign barriers to American exports and deliver better trading conditions for American manufacturers (who rely on imports), then hiking tariffs on South Korea makes startlingly little sense.”

“the new tariffs seem to violate an existing trade deal between the U.S. and South Korea. That deal, the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement, was signed in 2007 by President George W. Bush and implemented in 2012. Under the terms of the deal, about 95 percent of the goods traded between the two countries are imported tariff-free. Among other things, that deal put an end to high South Korean tariffs on American cars and light trucks, which has boosted American exports and U.S. auto manufacturing jobs.
On the whole, the deal has been good for both countries. Bilateral trade between the U.S. and South Korea expanded nearly 70 percent in the first 10 years that the deal was in place. As the Heritage Foundation noted in 2022, the deal was particularly good for American farmers (who saw exports to South Korea hit record highs) and for foreign investment in American industries (South Korean investment in the U.S. nearly tripled during the deal’s first decade in force).”

“Trump himself signed a renegotiated version of that same trade deal in 2018. The so-called KORUS 2.0 rolled back some of the free trade provisions in the original deal—most notably, it limited exports of Korean steel to the U.S. and postponed a planned elimination of the U.S. tariff on imported light trucks.

Still, it was mostly “a minor tweak” to the previous deal, as the Cato Institute termed it at the time.

Trump called the reworked deal “fair and reciprocal” and said it was “a historic milestone in trade.”

Now, less than seven years later, he’s effectively torn up that deal. Or he’s pretending that it never existed (or he forgot about it).

So, here’s the question: What is the White House hoping to accomplish with this latest maneuver?

If the goal is to lower tariffs across the board, then KORUS already did that. If the goal is to increase American exports to foreign countries by getting them to lower their trade barriers, then KORUS has already done that too. If the goal is to allow Trump to renegotiate the supposedly flawed trade deals from previous generations of American leaders, then KORUS 2.0 did that.

And, of course, if the goal is to strike more deals with more countries—as the White House keeps claiming—then this seems to be a step in the wrong direction. What other leader will be willing to negotiate seriously with this administration, knowing full well that it does not respect the deals it reaches?”

https://reason.com/2025/07/07/with-new-25-percent-tariffs-trump-just-blew-up-his-own-trade-deal-with-south-korea/

Treasury secretary says countries without trade deals will see tariffs ‘boomerang’ to April rates by Aug. 1

“Asked whether the U.S. would be flexible with any countries about on the July 9 deadline, Trump said, “Not really.”
“They’ll start to pay on Aug. 1,” he added. “The money will start to come into the United States on Aug. 1, OK, in pretty much all cases.”

Tariffs are paid by importers — which can pass on part or all of the costs to consumers — and not necessarily by entities in the goods’ country of origin.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-secretary-says-countries-without-170129594.html

Trump turns trade talks into foreign policy wish list

“That unwillingness to significantly budge on his array of tariffs has bogged down trade negotiations and hindered the administration from crafting substantial trade deals. As the U.S. has set out to negotiate deals with more than 60 trading partners, world leaders have grown increasingly frustrated with what they say are unbalanced demands from the U.S.

Other trading partners, including the European Union, have bristled at the terms of the UK framework and said they would not agree to a similar deal. That arrangement left a 10 percent so-called baseline tariff in place, while laying out a path to slash sector-specific tariffs.

The bloc isn’t alone, and Trump’s numerous demands and “do-it-or-else” approach have made it challenging for countries to corral the domestic political support they’ll need in order to sell any deal at home.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/28/trade-talks-morph-into-trumps-global-bargaining-table-00430160