Tag: conflict

IDF on the Brink: Is the Ceasefire in Lebanon a Strategic Blunder? How It Impacts Gaza

Posted on by Lone Candle

Israel blew a lot of shit up, but didn’t seem to make concrete gains in Lebanon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bm_LP1zGbrk

Biden and Graham Reportedly Schemed on How ‘To Go to War For Saudi Arabia’

Posted on by Lone Candle

Biden and Graham Reportedly Schemed on How ‘To Go to War For Saudi Arabia’

https://reason.com/2024/10/18/biden-and-graham-reportedly-schemed-on-how-to-go-to-war-for-saudi-arabia/

The West is trying to starve the wrong part of Russia’s war machine, defense experts say

Posted on by Lone Candle

“The RUSI team argues that Western sanctions should target the artillery supply chain rather than primarily focusing on blocking advanced tech like microelectronics from reaching Russia.
“It is more difficult to secretly transfer thousands of tons of chromium ore into a country than to smuggle in a few thousand microchips,” the report said; chromium is used in artillery barrel manufacturing.

Endowed with vast natural resources and a huge Soviet-era defense industrial base, Russia is self-sufficient for many of its military needs. But the RUSI team zeroed in on two requirements where Russia depends on imports: Machine tools and raw materials that are essential for casting or refurbishing artillery barrels, and for producing artillery shells.

Until 2022, Russia depended on Western-supplied machine tools, especially advanced computer numerical control, or CNC, automated systems. Sanctions imposed in 2023 slashed imports of Western equipment, but China has been able to fill much of the gap, though “Russian companies have historically preferred Western machine tools over Chinese equivalents, as they are more precise and higher quality,” the report noted. However, China and other nations re-export Western tools to Russia. RUSI identified at least 2,113 companies that supplied Western tools to Russia in 2023 and early 2024, including equipment from Germany, South Korea, Italy, Japan and Taiwan.

Manufacturing artillery barrels is a rigorous task that requires highly specialized manufacturing facilities. Just as US defense manufacturing has consolidated into a few prime contractors who can build jets and ships, only four Russian companies can forge artillery barrels: Zavod No. 9 in Yekaterinburg; Titan-Barrikady in Volgograd; MZ/ SKB in Perm; and the Burevestnik Research Institute in Nizhny Novgorod, according to the report. Each company has its own supply chain of subcontractors, such as factories that make special steel.

As for raw materials, Russia imports about 55% of the high-quality chromium needed to harden gun barrels. It also depends on Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to supply much of the cotton cellulose that is a crucial ingredient in the nitrocellulose used to make explosives. There are three primary manufacturers of artillery ammunition in Russia — NIMI Bakhirev, the Plastmass Plant and KBP Shipunov — which also rely on a web of contractors and suppliers.

Evidence suggests that sanctions on these links in the supply chain can work. For example, Khlopkoprom-Tsellyuloza, a Kazakh company that was a major supplier of cotton cellulose to two Russian propellant factories, slashed its exports when those factories were sanctioned, RUSI pointed out. Indeed, Kazakhstan is now supplying cotton cellulose for NATO ammunition.

Current Western sanctions tend to be too broad and sporadic to cripple Russian defense production. A better approach would be a mixture of economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure focused on Russia’s artillery supply chain, concluded the report. “A concerted approach, with additional resources dedicated to enforcement and disruption, will have a greater chance of success.””

https://www.yahoo.com/news/west-trying-starve-wrong-part-112301587.html

The Key Source of Cash Drying Up for Ukraine

Posted on by Lone Candle

“Charities have been essential to meeting these needs. No one knows precisely how many items they have donated, but the figure is likely in the millions. The donations were particularly sizable in the war’s first year. “We were sending primarily drones, night-vision equipment and optics, plates, helmets, carriers and uniforms,” said Tallat-Kelpša, whose group raised over $1 million in the first 10 months of the invasion. United Help Ukraine, which raised tens of millions of dollars in 2022, told me they sent 5,000 bulletproof vests and 100,000 tourniquets. Hope for Ukraine, a New Jersey-based group that raised over $6 million in 2022, was able to stuff a shipping container with aid — including food and medical supplies — every week or two.
“The entire war is crowdfunded,” said Matthew Sampson, a former U.S. soldier who serves in Ukraine’s International Legion, a unit of the Ukrainian armed forces composed of foreign volunteers. Like many NATO veterans now fighting in Ukraine, he is acutely aware of what Kyiv lacks. Foreign donors, Sampson said, allowed his unit to purchase food and fuel. They gave them cars. They even helped pay for housing. “For our safe houses, we had to pay rent, utilities and repairs,” Sampson told me. “Ukraine doesn’t have the money for any of that stuff.”

But today, almost every group helping the country — big and small alike — is taking in less money than before. During the first year of the war, Come Back Alive raised roughly $38 million in non-Ukrainian currencies. In the more than 18 months since, it has raised less than half that figure. United Help Ukraine also said donations had decreased, although they didn’t provide details. Hope for Ukraine said they raised roughly a third as much in 2023 as they did in 2022. “It was like a big roller coaster,” said Yuriy Boyechko, the group’s leader. “There was a big high, and then there was a big drop.””

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/10/17/ukraine-russia-war-aid-donations-00184025

North Korean troops helping Putin is a ‘grave’ threat to the world, Seoul says

Posted on by Lone Candle

“South Korea’s spy agency said Friday it believes North Korea has already begun deploying four brigades totaling 12,000 troops, including special forces, to the war in Ukraine.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/north-korean-troops-helping-vladimir-putin-grave-threat-world-seoul-yoon-suk-yeol/

BPEA Fall 2024 Session 6 – The Economics of Sanctions: From Theory Into Practice

Posted on by Lone Candle

Sanctions against Russia made their ability to wage war weaker than it otherwise would have been, but only had limited effectiveness due to poor execution and other powers not going along.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74hq_0BLxf4

Austria says Russia to cut off gas from Saturday

Posted on by Lone Candle

“Ukraine has said it will not extend the transit agreement with Russian state-owned Gazprom in order to deprive Russia of profits that Kyiv says help to finance the war against it.
Moscow’s suspension of gas for Austria, the main receiver of gas via Ukraine, means Russia will now only supply significant gas volumes to Hungary and Slovakia, in Hungary’s case via a pipeline running mostly through Turkey. In contrast, Russia met 40% of the European Union’s gas needs before Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.”

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/austrias-omv-informed-gazprom-deliveries-150454416.html

How Biden’s Gaza pier project unraveled

Posted on by Lone Candle

“The resulting pier mission did not go well.
It involved 1,000 U.S. troops, delivered only a fraction of the promised aid at a cost of nearly $230 million, and was from the start beset by bad luck and miscalculations, including fire, bad weather and dangers on shore from the fighting between Israel and Hamas.”
…
“The U.S. military aimed to ramp up to as many as 150 trucks a day of aid coming off the pier.
But because the pier was only operational for a total of 20 days, the military says it moved a total of only 19.4 million pounds of aid into Gaza. That would be about 480 trucks of aid delivered in total from the pier, based on estimates by the World Food Programme from earlier this year of weight carried by a truck.
The United Nations says about 500 truckloads of aid are needed daily to address the needs of Palestinians in Gaza.
Just days after the first shipments of aid rolled off the pier in Gaza, crowds overwhelmed trucks and took some of it.
Israel’s killings of seven World Central Kitchen workers in April and its use of an area near the pier as it staged a hostage rescue recovery mission in June also dented the confidence of aid organizations, on whom the U.S. was relying to carry the supplies from the shore and distribute to residents.
A senior U.S. defense official acknowledged that aid delivery “proved to be perhaps more challenging than the planners anticipated.”
One former official said Kurilla had raised distribution as a concern early on.
“General Kurilla was also very clear about that: ‘I can do my piece of this, and I can do distribution if you task me to do it,'” the former official said.
“But that was explicitly scoped out of what the task was. And so we were reliant on these international organizations.”
Current and former U.S. officials told Reuters that the United Nations and aid organizations themselves were always cool to the pier.
At a closed-door meeting of U.S. officials and aid organizations in Cyprus in March, Sigrid Kaag, the U.N. humanitarian and reconstruction coordinator for Gaza, offered tacit support for Biden’s pier project.
But Kaag stressed the UN preference was for “land, land, land,” according to two people familiar with the discussions.
The United Nations declined to comment on the meeting. It referred to a briefing on Monday where a spokesperson for the organization said that the U.N. appreciated every way of getting aid into Gaza, including the pier, but more access through land routes is needed.
The underlying concern for aid organizations was that Biden, under pressure from fellow Democrats over Israel’s killing of civilians in Gaza, was pushing a solution that would at best be a temporary fix and at worst would take pressure off Netanyahu’s government to open up land routes into Gaza.
Dave Harden, a former USAID mission director to the West Bank and Gaza, described the pier project as “humanitarian theater.”
“It did relieve the pressure, unfortunately, on having the (land border) crossings work more effectively.””
https://www.reuters.com/world/how-bidens-gaza-pier-project-unraveled-2024-07-25/