Tariff Uncertainty Is Stalling the Economy

“The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s monthly survey of manufacturers, published earlier this week, reported sharp drops in what it calls “forward-looking indicators”—that is, what businesses expect the next six months to look like. The manufacturers in the survey expect to see fewer orders, longer delivery times, declining inventories, and lower levels of employment. About the only lines in the survey that are pointed upward are the expectations about prices.”

https://reason.com/2025/04/16/tariff-uncertainty-is-stalling-the-economy/

Americans want more U.S. factory jobs—as long as they don’t have to work them

“as of May 2024, there were around 600,000 open positions in manufacturing (there’s almost 500,000 open today, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve), so there isn’t exactly a shortage of roles out there. Instead, there is a disconnect between how Americans in general think of manufacturing and how they view it for themselves. This is one reason why the National Association of Manufacturers and the former Secretary of the Navy under President Joe Biden both called for increased immigration, Grabow notes.

“Such jobs can’t find enough interested Americans to fill them,” he wrote.

Manufacturing workers themselves report “markedly” lower personal satisfaction with their jobs than other workers, according to the Pew Research Center. They also report less satisfaction with their pay, health insurance, and other benefits, and flexibility of their work hours.”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/americans-want-more-u-factory-080000279.html

Trump’s Team Panicking Over Tariff Chaos

The stock market fall and the inflation from tariffs damage retirements and show the importance of Social Security.

These tariffs aren’t part of a total strategy to bring key industries back to the United States. They are vindictive and nonsensical.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaAdYSrYQdk

No, the U.S. Industrial Base Is Not Collapsing

“U.S. manufacturing output, even adjusted for inflation, is near all-time highs. While about 5 percent below its December 2007 peak, it’s up 177 percent compared with 1975, the year America last ran an annual trade surplus. Industrial production—manufacturing, mining, and utilities combined—is higher than ever. That’s hardly a collapse.

A principal source of confusion is the difference between jobs and output. Yes, the number of workers in manufacturing has declined dramatically—from around 19 million in 1980 to about 13 million today. But that didn’t happen because America stopped making things. It happened because we got incredibly good at making things.

Productivity in manufacturing has surged thanks to automation, technology, and global supply chains. Just as we now produce more food than ever with just over 1 percent of Americans working in agriculture (down from around 75 percent in 1800), we produce more manufactured goods with far fewer workers. That’s not economic decline; it’s progress.

Also fueling the perception of decline are regional factors. Shuttered factories in Detroit or Youngstown, Ohio, bring concentrated pain and struggle for affected workers. No one denies this. But manufacturing didn’t disappear; it relocated and upgraded.”

https://reason.com/2025/03/27/no-the-u-s-industrial-base-is-not-collapsing/

Trump’s New Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum Won’t Help American Manufacturing

“These tariffs will protect American steelmakers and aluminum manufacturers from competition but at the expense of other American manufacturers that buy steel and aluminum to produce finished goods.
Unfortunately, there are a lot more jobs in the latter camp than in the former.”

“The Peterson Institute for International Economics calculated that the costs of Trump’s 2018 steel tariffs totaled about $650,000 per job created. If this is an economic development scheme for American manufacturing, it’s a pretty terrible one.

Farther downstream, consumers will be hurt too. When Trump hiked tariffs on steel and aluminum imports during his first term, those import duties translated into price increases of 2.4 percent for steel and 1.6 percent for aluminum, according to a 2023 study by the U.S. International Trade Commission.

That might not sound like a lot, but there are several reasons to expect a more significant hit this time around.

For one, Trump is now raising tariffs on both metals to 25 percent. His first-term tariffs were 25 percent on steel but only 10 percent on aluminum.

The impact of the steel and aluminum tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term was also blunted by the wide variety of carve-outs and loopholes that the administration created. Companies affected by the tariffs could apply for exemptions—and the process for deciding who got those breaks was, unsurprisingly, opaque and political.”

https://reason.com/2025/02/11/trumps-new-tariffs-on-steel-aluminum-wont-help-american-manufacturing/

Sunk Cost: The US. Navy’s Shipbuilding Crisis

The U.S. is facing ship-building delay after ship-building delay, and they need these ships soon for China’s expected invasion of Taiwan.

The industry has a conflict of interest between their obligations to the Navy and their shareholders.

Congressmen care more about announcing orders for their reelections rather than making sure they are carried through efficiently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msGcQT_WJMo