A regime change war against Iran had a chance of succeeding, but it required both commitment to a longer war and preparing the Iranian opposition on the ground. The Trump administration, despite essentially declaring a regime-change war at the beginning by calling on the Iranian people to soon rise up, did not appear to much help the Iranian opposition and had no stomach for the length of war necessary to give regime change a chance.
At the start of the Iran War, Trump straight up told the Iranian people that the US was here to help the Iranian people overthrow their theocratic government. Trump was either lying, or just gave up on that goal.
“to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.
For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want, so let’s see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny, and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach.
This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”
Trump went to war without the willingness to win it if Iran simply fought back in predictable ways.
Trump can get away with acting like a jackass for the same reason he can get away with grabbing women by the pussie…he’s a celebrity. When you’re a celebrity, they let you do anything you want. Other Republicans who have tried to imitate Trump, have not been very successful.
The Obama Iran deal required 100s of workers and experts working meticulously to get done. Trump sent a couple real estate guys and then gave up and started a war which he lost.
Trump is cool with Iran having ballistic missiles because other countries in the region have them. He’s acting like Iran is just another country and not a unique threat.
Some economists act like different factors of the economy are interchangeable when really they are complements.
The blocking of the Strait limited the supply of multiple inputs, and it will take time to get logistics and production back to normal. The downstream economic impacts of the blockade are not over.
Trump argues that the frozen assets are Iran’s money, so they should be given back at some time anyways. Although, he completely rejected when Obama gave back money that the US rightfully owed Iran in a deal that delayed Iran’s nuclear program without war.