For Iran to win, all they have to do is survive and maintain an ability to commit terror attacks. Thus far, the US has failed to end Iran’s ability to hit Israel, hit gulf states, hit US bases, and stop shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
So far, the US has failed to achieve any objectives obviously worth the costs of the war. Iran is still unfriendly. Iran hasn’t agreed to any long-term commitments. They still have the ability to strike death and terror in the region and to damage the global economy.
If regime change or a long-term commitment is not going to be reached, then continuing to mow the lawn is likely not worth the costs, so it’s better to quit now than to take further costs. But, quitting now does mean the US failed in anything but destroying a bunch of stuff. Iran will quickly rebuild their drones and missiles and remain a terrorist state.
Trump’s tariffs haven’t much limited goods coming from China to the US because China just ships them through third-party countries. The administration talked about cracking down on this, but haven’t really done it.
The MQ-9 Reaper drone was great when the enemy didn’t have anti-air capabilities, but when they do, the slow, loud, and radar-visible drone is easily shot down.