‘Already in 1993/1994, [Russia] had begun to make threatening language and gestures toward its neighbors. In 1994 the president of Estonia made a speech about how happy Estonia was to be a member of Europe and about the reemergence of a threat from Russia. He was already hearing language from Russia threatening Estonia sovereignty and whether Estonia was really an independent country. At this speech, the deputy mayor of Saint Petersburg, Vladimir Putin, walked out. The language of threat from Russia began in the 90s. In 2005 there was a large cyber attack on Estonia. This is why these countries wanted to join NATO, because they felt a reasonable direct threat from Russia.’
NATO is not a direct threat to Russia’s homeland, and it is only a threat to Russia’s interests if Russia has the intention of dominating its neighbors. Russia’s interest in Ukraine is not primarily defensive, but imperial.
There was almost no U.S. military presence in Eastern Europe until Russia stole Crimea with military force.
The global south’s response to Russia’s invasion has been disappointing because it is not just a European issue. The invasion violates the global norm that you don’t change borders by force.
“A huge fire that burned the largest shopping center in the Polish capital Warsaw to the ground a year ago was set deliberately by people acting on behalf of Russia, Donald Tusk said Sunday.
European countries, particularly those in the east of the bloc, have been plagued by Russian espionage in recent years. Arson attacks are another common tool used as part of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy.
“We now know for sure that the great fire of the Marywilska shopping center in Warsaw was caused by arson ordered by Russian special services,” Tusk said. “Some of the perpetrators have already been detained, all the others are identified and [are being] sought. We will get you all!”
Tusk had said in March that evidence from Lithuania suggested Russia was to blame for the attack, in line with suspicions in Poland, but his statement on Sunday was unequivocal in assigning responsibility to Russia.
The Lithuanian investigation found that a May 9, 2024 arson attack on an IKEA store in Vilnius, as well as the May 12, 2024 Marywilska fire, were set by Ukrainian citizens acting on behalf of Russia, Tusk wrote in March. A week earlier, Polish prosecutors had said a Belarusian refugee was responsible.”
“Expropriating billions of dollars from American businesses is injurious and capricious. Citizens of the E.U. benefit from the American technology sector; siphoning capital from U.S. tech firms leaves them with less to commit to research and development, stymieing further innovation. The E.U. should stop penalizing American firms that outcompete their European counterparts.”
Ukraine is hurting, but so is Russia. Russia is offering higher and higher pay for fighters, and will soon have to force more people into the military. They will also run low on equipment. If Ukraine had consistent support from partners, Russia would soon be in a tough position.
Defeating Russia in Ukraine would isolate Iran and deter both China and Russia from future aggression. China would be most deterred by a willing and strong U.S. bonded with many allies. Unfortunately, the U.S. is acting weak while at the same time damaging its alliances.
“The bottom line is that Putin doesn’t yet have a good enough reason to agree to end the war.
What will change his mind? The carrots Trump has been offering must be replaced with sticks — effective and consistent policies designed to make the cost of waging war higher than the cost of peace.”
Trump removed the advocates general of the military and other military leaders. This is exactly what you would do if you wanted the military to do something illegal.