“Putin, meanwhile, has had the measure of his Washington opponents — and on Thursday, he demonstrated he understands Trump’s psychology. Praise the man while deflecting him; pat him on the head — something Ukraine’s passionate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy almost fatally forgot to do in his Oval Office meeting last month, prompting a hasty ejection from the White House.
There was no firm Russian nyet to stoke the U.S. leader’s anger, rather a teacher’s applause for Trump’s idea and effort.
The temporary truce was “correct” and “we support it,” the Russian leader said, but, alas, there were many sticking points. Ukrainian units had nearly been encircled in a salient in Russia’s Kursk region and could be forced to “surrender or die,” he explained. Why should they just be let go? “If we stop hostilities for 30 days, what does that mean? That everyone who is there will go out without a fight?”
During the pause in hostilities, will Ukraine be able to mobilize fresh troops and receive weapons from the West? “How will supervision be organized? These are all serious questions.” He then added: “I think we need to talk to our American colleagues … Maybe have a phone call with President Trump and discuss this with him.”
It was all drawn from the playbook that he and his lugubrious Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have used time and again: Obfuscate, delay, muddle, throw in some whataboutism, be sorrowfully unctuous, but make sure to dangle a carrot.”
…
““Trump is much more concerned about this deal than about Ukraine,” Bondarev said. “That gives Putin leverage.””
“After more than three years of war, Ukraine has agreed to a U.S. proposal for an immediate ceasefire. The 30-day truce will come into effect if Russia signs up to the same terms, according to a joint statement from the Ukrainian and American governments.”
…
“Trump’s team say they will now take the plan for a 30-day ceasefire to Moscow. “The ball is now in their court,” said Rubio. Russia has been delighted by Trump’s attitude so far, and the ceasefire does not impose any pre-conditions on the Kremlin, as far as is known, other than a pause in the fighting.
Under the outline ceasefire plan, the pause in the fighting would allow humanitarian steps, including the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of detained civilians “and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children,” the joint statement said.”
…
“After taking the radical step of cutting off the supply of military kit and intelligence to Kyiv, the U.S. has now agreed to resume sharing its secret information. It will also restart “security assistance.””
…
“The terms of the proposal are for a temporary truce that can be extended if both sides agree. Once fighting is paused, negotiations will begin immediately on the terms of a permanent peace. Both the U.S. and Ukraine have promised to name their negotiating teams as soon as possible.”
…
“Ahead of the talks, Rubio warned Kyiv that it would need to make concessions, including on territory. But during the eight hours of discussions in Jeddah on Tuesday, the topic of ceding territory did not even come up, according to a Ukrainian official. The point is certain to be brought up, however, if substantive negotiations begin on a permanent settlement.”
…
“The U.S. president has made clear that he is not inclined to guarantee “very much” by way of Ukraine’s future security, seeing this as a job for Europe, not America. Nothing in Tuesday’s joint statement suggests that has changed.”
“The U.S. halt in sending military aid to Ukraine could leave the country vulnerable to aerial attacks just as Russia is gearing up for a massive increase in drone and missile strikes.
Ukraine has a reported six MIM-104 Patriot missile batteries — used to protect some of the country’s highest priority targets. The Patriot, with a range of about 160 kilometers, is one of the few systems Ukraine operates that can hit distant targets and knock down Russian ballistic missiles like the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile.
The pause in deliveries of U.S. weapons coincides with signs that Russia will double down on longstanding efforts to exhaust Ukraine’s remaining supplies of Patriot air-defense missiles. And with no chance of any immediate replenishment from Washington, that leaves Ukraine’s infrastructure and key cities highly exposed.
If the U.S. ends the delivery of Patriot missiles, Ukraine could potentially be supplied by other countries that have acquired the U.S. system.”
“Was that expecting too much from Zelenskyy — to sit and smile while signing away a portion of his nation’s mineral wealth without getting security guarantees in return?”
“France supported the fledgling continental army for about four years with supplies, weapons, advisors, men; you know, [the army got many of its words from the French]. Yeah, I don’t recall France ever telling the U.S. they should just surrender to England. You don’t bend the knee to Communists and dictators…you punch them in the face until they stop. If we bend the knee to Russia now, how long will it be until we beg the dragon that rises in the East to please eat us last?”
Russian victory is not inevitable. Russian territorial progress has been slow, by May 9th Russian will have lost a million soldiers killed or wounded, Russia has about a year’s worth of armored vehicles left, Russian logistics is using: civilian vans, golf buggies, and donkeys, and the Russian economy is making huge sacrifices to support the wartime economy.
“Vance’s gamble to temporarily step into the limelight has paid off in at least one significant way. After Zelenskyy left the West Wing without signing a highly anticipated mineral rights deal, the White House responded by adopting one of Vance’s signature foreign policy initiatives: a total pause on U.S. military aid to Ukraine.”