“Retail giants have proven more adept than expected at cushioning the blow of President Donald Trump’s steep tariff hikes over the spring and summer, keeping prices for consumer goods from surging this year by as much as many economists anticipated. But business executives and corporate analysts are warning they can’t do that forever.
“In the first half of next year, we are concerned that consumers are going to start to see the price increases become a little more broad based, and there may not be all the [holiday sales] promotion to help clear through some of that,” Joseph Feldman, a senior managing director at Telsey Advisory Group, who focuses on the retail sector, said in an interview. “So that could be a little bit of a sticker shock for some people.”
That could come as soon as January, according to economists, as holiday discounts come to a close and retailers run low on inventory they secured at pre-tariff prices.”
“The Trump administration unveiled a $12 billion aid package on Monday for farmers hurt by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and other economic challenges.”
When countries like China focus on heavily investing, initially it works well because they invest in productive things and this grows their economy. However, later, they run out of that many productive things to invest in, in which case they are robbing their citizens of consumption and outcompeting other countries’ manufacturing, but not gaining much actual new productive benefits. This leads to debt.
Bilateral tariffs like Trump is doing don’t work. The U.S. has a huge deficit because it consumes more than it exports. A global tariff could work by making goods more expensive and incentivizing people to consume, now relatively cheaper, domestic products. Bilateral tariffs just mean Americans will import cheap goods from country C and D instead of the heavily tariffed countries A and B.
Getting foreigners to invest in the U.S. hurts the U.S.. The U.S. has plenty of capital to invest and doesn’t need more. Additional investment means driving up the dollar, making U.S. goods less competitive internationally, and hurting U.S. exports.
China has debt to support investment. The U.S. has debt to support consumption. The system is out of whack and needs adjustment.
“The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs report last month showed there were 6,000 fewer manufacturing jobs in October, despite nonfarm payrolls increasing by 119,000. The slip in factory roles have brought the tally of lost manufacturing jobs since Trump’s April tariff push to 59,000, according to the data.
Laura Ullrich, director of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab, told Fortune the shrinking manufacturing sector is, in part, a result of tariffs disproportionately hitting intermediate goods, which are products used in the process of creating a finished good. This can hike up production costs, forcing companies to slash headcount. Pantheon Macroeconomics analysts Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen similarly said in September that shrinking wage growth was a result of tariff-hit companies trying to maintain margins amid rising input costs.”
“While annual inflation through August 2025 came in at 2.9 percent, the price of audio equipment like new speakers had risen 12.2 percent. “They’re some of the few electronics not exempt from tariffs (most smartphones/computers are still tariff-free),””
Mike Johnson used to push for limiting the president’s power over tariffs. Now, he is Trump’s little bitch and actively prevents such bills from even reaching the floor.
“some scientists in Iowa figured out how to extract sugar from corn, and high-fructose corn syrup was born.
But there was a problem. The high-fructose corn syrup that American corn farmers were producing was more expensive than sugar. To get food and beverage companies to buy what Andreas was selling, Andreas needed to make his sweet stuff more attractive in the market.
And one way to do that is to make your competitors’ products more expensive.
That’s exactly what the federal government has been doing for decades. In 1976, President Gerald Ford tripled the import tax on sugar. If you tax something, you’ll get less of it. Or, well, you get a more expensive version of it. That’s exactly what happened with imported sugar.
By 1988, sugar came to sell at 22 cents a pound in the United States despite the world price being just 10.5 cents per pound, with each cent increase adding $250 to $300 million to Americans’ collective food bills.
Faced with the rising price of sugar in the mid-1980s, candy and soda companies did the thing that made economic sense: They stopped using sugar and switched to high fructose corn syrup.”
“”The U.S. is our least trustworthy trading partner right now—and I say that as an American,” Price Johnson, COO of Cephalofair Games, told Reason last month. “I can’t trust what the policy is going to be tomorrow, let alone next week.”
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The Yale Budget Lab estimates that Trump’s tariffs will cost the average American household around $1,700 this year.”
“From knitting needles to garment fabric to bottles of paint, American crafters work with many materials produced abroad. That has left them particularly vulnerable to Trump’s trade war. Imports from Europe currently face tariffs of 15 percent, and while sky-high tariffs on China are currently subject to a 90-day pause, they still stand at 57.6 percent, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Worse still, Trump has done away with the de minimis exemption, which allowed goods valued at under $800 to enter the U.S. tariff-free.
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Exclusively stocking U.S.-produced materials isn’t an option for most craft stores. “Tariffs impact American-made yarns as well,” pointed out Fibre Space, a yarn store in Alexandria, Virginia. That’s because “American-made goods still rely on materials made in other countries.” Yarn “is an agricultural product,” observes Chadwell, “so certain crops and certain livestock produce the best fiber in very specific climates that aren’t necessarily” found in the United States. Meanwhile, “needles, notions, doodads, [and] bags…can only be produced at much higher prices” here.
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Tariffs prevent all sorts of voluntary transactions that shape lives and culture in big—and often inconspicuous—ways. That means shops that won’t be started, gifts that won’t be made by hand, and hobbies that won’t be taken up. And more immediately, tariffs are punishing business owners who want to help Americans fill their lives with more creativity.”
Tariffs degrade long run efficiency, but uncertainty caused by Trump’s erratic use of tariffs has a greater negative effect on the economy in the short term.