Paul Blustein on the Rise, Dominance, and Current Challenges to King Dollar

The independence of the Fed is key to protecting the dollar, the economy, and price stability. People can trust in the dollar because the Fed will do what needs to be done to control inflation, even if it is painful.

Big things Trump’s economic team wants to do would require great international deals, but those deals are worthless if no one trusts the United States or its president. Trump is so erratic, that no one trusts him. He made the NAFTA 2.0 agreement with Mexico and Canada during his first term, then during his second called it junk and tried to break it. He threatens to take territory from allies and threatens to renege on NATO promises. Countries won’t make the sacrifices of a big Trump-pushed-for-deal when they can’t trust Trump to keep his promises.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmyZQ-I0jok

Trump says pharma tariffs will entice back drug production. They won’t.

“the cost of site construction might rise further because of the 25 percent tariff Trump has imposed on steel, a major input in industrial construction”

““The same concern applies to manufacturing equipment, which is all stainless steel,””

“What actually encourages companies to move — as Trump alluded to when he called out Dublin — isn’t tariffs, said Ned Hux, a pharmaceutical and life sciences tax partner at PwC.
“Targeted tax incentives, streamlined regulatory approvals, and prioritized government procurement could make U.S.-based production more attractive and competitive,” he said, adding those measures could come in the form of tax deductions, lower tax rates on manufacturing activity, tax credits and low-interest financing for domestic production.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-donald-trump-pharma-tariffs-drug-production/

China’s Halt of Critical Minerals

China is the only main supplier of rare earths. Rare earths are key to military and industrial technologies. The Trump administration seems unprepared for China’s predictable move to ban rare earth minerals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcR50vC6nGE

Reality Check: What Trump’s Supposed Retreat Really Means in a Historic Trade War

“Even with Trump’s recent reversal, net tariffs are still the highest they’ve been in a century.”

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/10/tariff-reality-check-trump-retreat-00285270

The Supreme Court’s Mixed Signals on Trump’s Deportations to El Salvador

“the administration’s maneuvering appears to represent a concerted effort to evade longstanding American law by intentionally sending people to a legal black hole with no process, no rights and no recourse.”

“”the U.S. is labeling people ‘enemies’ with little or no process, and then shipping them offshore””

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/11/deportations-el-salvador-guantanamo-00285623

Trump May Be Triggering the Fastest Nuclear Weapons Race Since the Cold War

“Trump has been obsessed with preventing a nuclear holocaust since he was a bumptious boy builder back in the 1980s. Back then Trump reportedly proposed, with typical grandiosity, that if President Ronald Reagan appointed him “plenipotentiary ambassador” he would end the Cold War “within one hour.””

“the nations considering going nuclear are longtime U.S. allies, from Germany to South Korea, Japan to Saudi Arabia. Faced with the threat of U.S. withdrawal from its defense commitments, more and more countries are now openly talking about embracing the bomb — and just as worrisome, actually deploying nukes if hostilities break out.”

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/11/trump-says-he-fears-nuclear-weapons-so-why-is-he-making-them-more-popular-00278790

The FDA fired its tobacco enforcers. Now it wants them back.

“The Food and Drug Administration earlier this month fired dozens of staffers responsible for going after retailers who illegally sell tobacco to minors.

Now it’s begging them to come back.

Senior FDA officials asked laid-off employees in recent days to temporarily return after mass cuts decimated the agency’s ability to penalize retailers that sell cigarettes and vapes to minors, four federal health officials familiar with the matter said.”

“Without aggressive federal oversight, stores would face far less incentive to turn away underage buyers. That could open the door to a reversal in youth tobacco use rates, experts said, undercutting the fight against chronic disease that Kennedy has vowed to make the centerpiece of his agenda. The civil penalties office also served as a key tool in combating growing sales of illicit vapes.

People who smoke cigarettes, use e-cigarettes or other tobacco products primarily begin before they turn 18, research shows, elevating their risk for a range of chronic diseases like lung cancer and heart disease.”

“It remains unclear why HHS gutted the office focused on civil penalties, which is known within FDA’s tobacco enforcement apparatus as the Division of Business Operations. The Center for Tobacco Products is funded entirely by user fees paid by industry, meaning the terminations won’t create any taxpayer savings. Instead, officials said, it may end up costing money; the fines that the FDA collects from retailers are funneled directly to the federal treasury.

Kennedy, who has singled out smoking as particularly detrimental to Americans’ health, argued in a recent CBS News interview that all the jobs eliminated across HHS were either administrative or deemed redundant.

“In some cases, we cut programs, but we only did that when we consolidated them into another program,” he said. “So the task will continue, their mission will continue. The people are still there for the most part.”

Yet within the FDA, the officials said the cuts effectively collapsed its tobacco enforcement operation.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/14/fda-fired-tobacco-enforcers-asked-return-00289985

Trump threatens to remove Harvard’s tax-exempt status

“Basically all major colleges and universities are tax-exempt organizations, and the government revoking that status over policy disagreements would be unprecedented. The U.S. tax code also grants exemptions to a wide swath of organizations, including charities, religious institutions — and even some political organizations.

But Republicans have taken aim at the Ivy League through the tax code in the past.

Congress imposed a 1.4 percent tax on high-dollar university endowments, like Harvard’s, in 2017 and Republicans may expand the levy in the tax package they are currently assembling.

Trump’s threats follow his administration pulling over $2.2 billion of Harvard’s federal funding in response to the university announcing it would not comply with a list of demands to curb what the White House views as antisemitism on campus.

Educational institutions can lose their tax-exempt status if found to be participating in activities related to political campaigning for or against candidates, or substantial amounts of lobbying by the Internal Revenue Service. There is no public evidence of Harvard violating IRS rules.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/15/harvard-trump-tax-exempt-00290534

US arrests co-founder of Palestinian student group at Columbia University

“Authorities have detained a co-founder of Columbia University’s Palestinian Student Union as he was completing the final steps toward gaining U.S. citizenship in what appears to be part of a widening crackdown on college activists by the Trump administration.

Mohsen Mahdawi, who had permanent U.S. residency, was taken into custody Monday in Vermont when he went to a federal office building for a naturalization appointment, according to a legal filing his attorney submitted to block his transfer to a detention facility out of state.”

““As a result of his speech he’s being detained, I mean it’s outrageous,” said Luna Droubi, an attorney for Mahdawi, who was raised in a Palestinian refugee camp in the West Bank but has lived in the U.S. for a decade.”

“Mahdawi appeared on “60 Minutes” in 2023 and was active in the Palestinian student protest movement at Columbia but says he had no role in organizing the largest and most raucous of the demonstrations in the following spring, according to his lawyer’s court filing.

He had finished his studies at Columbia and was planning to graduate in May and then return to the campus in the fall for a master’s degree. Mahdawi is a Buddhist and “believes in non-violence and empathy as a central tenet of his religion,” the court filing said.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/14/mahdawi-arrested-columbia-palestine-00290474