Why U.S. Stocks Aren’t In A Bubble (Yet)
Why U.S. Stocks *Aren’t* In A Bubble (Yet)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZE-hqrDRyzg
Tag: economics
The Truth about the Layoff Wave
It’s not clear how many layoffs are caused by AI. Companies may want to have layoffs or not hire for business reasons, and just blame it on AI so they don’t look bad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KChsk1JMuKA
Bessent Says Construction Jobs Are Booming Under Trump’s Tariffs. Government Data Show the Opposite.
“The federal government’s data do not show this “burst” in construction jobs. In fact, quite the opposite: Construction jobs declined by 11,000 in December, the most recent month for which Bureau of Labor Statistics data are available, and grew by just 0.2 percent during 2025 as a whole. Like most other blue-collar professions, jobs in the construction industry have been underwater since last April.
The president’s tariffs aren’t the only factor shaping that job market, but they surely aren’t helping. The Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) reports that overall construction input prices climbed 3.4 percent during 2025.
“Many tariff-affected materials, like derivative metal products and switchgear equipment, have experienced considerable price escalation in 2025,” Anirban Basu, chief economist for the ABC, said in a statement earlier this month. He pointed out that the price of aluminum, which is subject to huge new tariffs imposed by Trump in early 2025, climbed by more than 25 percent last year.
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Why are gas prices falling when other products are getting more expensive?
For one, we are enjoying a period of low oil prices globally. That’s a good thing, though it is also largely beyond the president’s control.
It also seems important to note that gasoline and other oil products are exempt from the Trump administration’s tariffs.
In other words, when a barrel of crude oil crosses the border from Canada, it doesn’t suddenly have an extra 25 percent tax tacked onto it. But when a roll of aluminum or a pallet of lumber crosses the same border, it suddenly becomes significantly more expensive for Americans to buy. As a result, it has become more expensive to build things but gasoline has remained more affordable.”
https://reason.com/2026/01/29/scott-bessent-says-construction-jobs-are-booming-under-trumps-tariffs-government-data-show-the-opposite/
From Georgia’s Film Subsidies to Intel’s Collapse, Industrial Policy Keeps Failing
“Trump’s tariffs, framed as industrial policy to reindustrialize the country, protect workers, and lower prices. Instead, tariffs have quietly consumed much of the manufacturing sector’s profits. This is unsurprising. Most U.S. imports are inputs used to make American goods. Tariffs, therefore, are taxes on American manufacturing.
Empirical work by the Kiel Institute shows that foreign exporters absorb only a trivial share of the cost. Roughly 96 percent of the burden is passed to American buyers. U.S. households and businesses—not foreign firms—overwhelmingly covered the roughly $200 billion in customs revenue collected in 2025. Companies we import from responded not by cutting prices but by shipping fewer goods to the U.S. As Kiel economist Julian Hinz put it, the tariffs amounted to an “own goal” that raised costs, compressed profits, and weakened the very industries they were meant to protect.
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Tariffs did not restore competitiveness or pricing power. They jacked up costs and made American production less attractive at the margin.”
https://reason.com/2026/01/29/from-georgias-film-subsidies-to-intels-collapse-industrial-policy-keeps-failing/
Trump’s Tariff War Is Crushing American Alcohol Makers
“new data has emerged from Canada showing the near-catastrophic consequences to American alcohol manufacturers from President Donald Trump’s tariff wars. Yet despite clear signs that his tariff policies are backfiring, the president keeps doubling down.”
https://reason.com/2026/01/31/trumps-tariff-war-is-crushing-american-alcohol-makers/
Trump Claims His Tariffs Have ‘Brought America Back.’ Here Are 3 Things He Got Wrong.
“the trade deficit increased—not decreased—by nearly 37 percent in November, the most recent month for which data are available. Through the first 11 months of 2025, the trade deficit was 4 percent higher than it had been in 2024. That is literally the opposite of what Trump is claiming.
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“tariffs led to both rapid and gradual retail price increases.” The study found that “prices began rising within days of the March announcements and continued to increase steadily over subsequent months,” and also that “imported goods rose roughly twice as much as domestic goods relative to pre-tariff trends.”
There is no getting away from this fact: tariffs are pushing prices higher. The Harvard Business School, Trump’s favorite source on the matter, recently noted that prices for imported goods are up 9.7 percent from their pre-tariff trends, while domestic prices are up 4.4 percent. Those increases have added an estimated 1 percentage point to inflation as measured by the consumer price index.
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Trump repeatedly backed down and eased tariff threats in the face of negative shocks from both the stock market and the bond market. The “Liberation Day” tariffs announced on April 2 were postponed a week later after a huge stock market sell-off, and those that were later imposed were at lower rates. A threatened 130 percent tariff on Chinese goods never materialized. No wonder “TACO”—”Trump Always Chickens Out”—entered the political and financial lexicon last year.
As the Yale Budget Lab’s data show, Trump raised the average U.S. tariff rate from less than 3 percent to more than 25 percent with his Liberation Day tariffs and other moves in the first half of 2025. But those rates declined in the second half of the year and settled around 17 percent. That’s still very high, but not as high as it could have been—so it makes sense that the consequences were less severe.”
https://reason.com/2026/02/02/trump-claims-his-tariffs-have-brought-america-back-here-are-3-things-he-got-wrong/
Trump: ‘I Want To Drive Housing Prices Up’
“The social impact of the housing affordability crisis is huge: fewer marriages, less household formation, lower birth rates, lower economic growth. The prices of stocks and bonds can go up indefinitely with few consequences. But housing is something people need, in addition to being an asset. It is an asset you also consume.”
https://reason.com/2026/02/02/trump-i-want-to-drive-housing-prices-up/
The Jobs Report Is Worse Than It Looks | Prof G Markets
The job growth was good compared to recent months, but not actually good. The job growth was heavily concentrated in healthcare and social assistance. These are jobs caused by our aging society, but not good underlying economic growth.
The jobs numbers for 2025 were revised, and job growth was very low for 2025.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSNZGWfitjM
Housing Policy Can Be Win-Win
“Creating true housing affordability for homebuyers would require an expansion of housing supply to lower overall housing prices—the thing Trump said he did not want to do.
The good news is that the federal government does not have too much direct influence over the number of homes that are built in the country. It’s local and state governments that decide what’s allowed to be built where.
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it’d also be a mistake to completely dismiss the idea that we can lower buyers’ housing costs and raise property values at the same time. Contra the president, that can easily be accomplished by allowing more homes to be built on existing residential land.
Free markets are generally win-win institutions. One should expect that free market reforms in the housing sector would produce win-wins for homeowners, buyers, and builders.
When local officials “upzone” land to allow more housing to be built on it, one expects the value of that land to increase to reflect the additional development potential. If a single-family property is upzoned to allow apartment construction, the current owner will see a windfall increase in the value of their property.”
https://reason.com/2026/02/03/housing-policy-can-be-win-win/
Federal Reserve chair nomination live: Wall Street reacts to Trump’s Fed pick, Kevin Warsh, as hurdles remain in the Senate
“Warsh has been critical of the Fed in recent months but is seen as a conventional choice for the role. Warsh has a background in the Bush administration, and he was appointed by former President George W. Bush as Fed governor, serving in that role during the financial crisis from 2006 until 2011.
Although he is considered a relatively safe pick, Warsh faces an uncertain path ahead in the Senate due to potential Republican opposition. North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, whose vote is needed to advance the nomination out of the Senate Banking Committee, reiterated that he would oppose any Fed chair pick until the Department of Justice’s investigation into Fed Chair Powell is resolved.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/federal-reserve-chair-nomination-live-wall-street-reacts-to-trumps-fed-pick-kevin-warsh-as-hurdles-remain-in-the-senate-182518657.html