“About six months before the first U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, the Trump administration gutted the Bureau of Energy Resources (ENR), an 80-person team within the State Department tasked with leading international energy diplomacy. The cuts were part of the then Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative to reduce the federal workforce, with the goal of slashing the federal budget.
More than a month into the conflict—with President Donald Trump indicating he will redouble attacks on Iran in the coming weeks—former ENR officials are warning DOGE eliminated key roles that would have helped the administration navigate and mitigate the energy chaos of the conflict and its impact on global oil markets, as well as foresee potential consequences of ongoing actions.
Fortune spoke with two former ENR officials—who wished to remain anonymous out of fear of retribution from the department—who are sounding the alarm on the insights and knowledge the federal government has lost as a result of the cuts, especially during a period of widespread oil and energy disruptions.
“It’s shocking how poorly prepared the administration is,” one former employee told Fortune. “You took away the people with the expertise and contacts who would be insanely useful in this context.””
There are some pipelines that go around the Strait of Hormuz, but they, and the ports they lead to, can’t handle the same load as the Strait. New projects to go around the Strait have been discussed, but are very expensive, while the Strait blockage will likely be temporary.
Republican and Democratic senators had a deal that would fund all of Homeland Security except ICE, but Trump said no.
Trump is paying a French company one billion dollars to stop a wind farm project and instead invest in oil and gas projects because Trump has an irrational bias against wind energy. He thinks they are ugly.
The US allowing Iran to ship its oil while Iran stops most others, except those it gives permission, is a sign of weakness from the US. Trump isn’t willing to face the pain of much higher oil prices. If Trump isn’t willing to take such pain, then why would Iran agree to any significant demands?
Ships are turning toward Iranian islands, checking in with Iran, and then moving on if they are one of the few allowed ships. Iran controls the Strait.
Militarily opening the Strait of Hormuz will be incredibly hard. Iran only has to get through once, the US needs to stop every weapon. It will require the great risk of putting a lot of forces close to Iran.
Protecting shipping would require pulling assets away from offense. Destroying 95% of Iranian weaponry does not matter if they can still threaten ships. Iranian oil ships are still going through the Strait. The US isn’t stopping Iranian oil ships.
The Iran war has been great for Russia so far. It’s oil is worth more thanks to the war. Some sanctions on its oil have been lifted by Trump as he tries to lower gas prices. The many munitions used by the US in the war mean there are fewer for the Europeans to buy for Ukraine. It allows Russia and China to go around the world saying how evil the US is, unjustly attacking a global south country.