Lone Candle
Champion of Truth
“Trump’s all-sticks-and-no-carrot approach to trade talks is making it difficult for even friendly foreign governments to reach an agreement they fear could be political suicide back home — no matter how much the White House threatens their economies.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/29/us-india-trade-deal-00430438
Trump Is Slapping a 50 Percent Tariff on Home Appliances
https://reason.com/2025/06/16/trump-is-slapping-a-50-percent-tariff-on-home-appliances/
“China on Friday signaled it would approve the export of rare earth minerals to the US, hours after White House officials said the two sides had reached a deal, in what would be a major breakthrough following weeks of negotiations over US access to the key materials.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-china-formalize-deal-rare-075006013.html
“Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer have all been meeting with foreign officials seeking agreements to stave off the crushing tariffs President Donald Trump has threatened to impose next month.
But Trump’s three-headed negotiating team is often working at cross purposes, or at least that’s how it seems to 11 foreign officials, business leaders and advisers on trade talks, who say they are receiving mixed messages from different departments, in what one person close to the talks described as a contest for Trump’s loyalty.
Their differing approaches have occasionally slowed down progress, the foreign officials say, like when the Commerce Department tightened restrictions on some Chinese technology in May, quickly derailing an agreement with Beijing that was negotiated by Bessent.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/22/there-is-not-a-singular-voice-countries-cant-figure-out-who-in-trumps-circle-to-listen-to-on-trade-00415851
Iran has several ways to close the Straits of Hormuz, and opening it back up will be deadly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTly35T4fz0
“Foreign manufacturers will have to lower their prices to accommodate tariff rates, Miran believes. If they don’t, then U.S. importers will turn to factories in other markets rather than absorbing the cost of tariffs themselves.
“We can move our demand across borders, but a factory can’t get up and move across borders,” he said.
You might say, his theory is that the customer is always right.
This line of thinking, a theme of his work since before he joined the administration, is an important way Miran’s reasoning diverges from that of most of his fellow economists. Critics point to examples — such as Trump’s tariffs on washing machines in his first term — where consumers seemed to be the ones who paid the price.
The question of who will bear the cost burden of import taxes is an important puzzle piece for gaming out how much inflation will rise and how much growth will slow. It is a particularly critical dilemma for the Federal Reserve, which is trying to decide when to ease off the decelerating economy.”
…
“For this to work, foreign firms have to believe that, unless they capitulate, U.S. companies really will relocate their supply chains elsewhere, Miran told me. That’s one of the many tricky parts for proponents of Trump’s agenda — and Miran conceded as much.
“The truth is that for a lot of products, there’s not a credible alternative for a supply chain available instantaneously, right?” he said.
The recalibration, in other words, will take some time.
And that time could come at a price for the economy, as Trump’s shifting tariffs and fluid negotiations leave businesses hesitant to take action. If firms knew where tariffs would land, they could make investment decisions — on where to build factories, on what size workforce they need, on whether they need to change their business model. In the meantime, many executives are frozen in place, a paralysis that itself could take a bite out of growth.
Right now, manufacturers have been scaling back production as new orders dry up, and confidence in business conditions among CEOs collapsed during the second quarter at its fastest pace in roughly half a century.
Miran was straightforward about acknowledging that policy uncertainty is a challenge, repeatedly suggesting that there could be volatility — in growth, in prices — ahead.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/18/trump-economist-stephen-miran-trade-war-00410450
“China has a virtual monopoly in the sector, dominating the entire supply chain from the extraction of rare earths to their processing and the manufacture of permanent magnets.
According to the International Energy Agency, the country accounts for some 61 percent of rare earths extraction and 92 percent of refining. Moreover, it provides nearly 99 percent of the EU’s supply of the 17 rare earths, as well as about 98 percent of its rare earth permanent magnets. Global demand for these minerals is expected to increase by 50 to 60 percent by 2040.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-rare-earth-materials-donald-trump-west-magnets-cars/
“When industries can boost profits more easily by lobbying for tariff exemptions than by competing in the marketplace, they will—and those incentives grow stronger as government intervention in the economy increases.”
https://reason.com/2025/06/03/the-list-who-got-a-tariff-exemption/
Wealthy people and great entrepreneurs aren’t going to not start that great business because they will pay more taxes if they make it big. Either way, if successful, they would have done something great and will be rich.
The most profitable and flexible workforce for Americans is illegal immigrants.
When we put tariffs on China, we are saying every country on Earth can get low inputs from China except America, making American business less competitive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKLdzBun4sk
The Houthi Red Sea Crisis – Complete Animated Documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7C2XMRbgmQ