We’ve watched for four years Russia continuing to not always adapt to protect their assets from drones and missiles, and now the US seems to be failing in the same way.
The US can only confirm that they destroyed a third of Iran’s missiles, and Iran doesn’t need that many missiles to damage neighbors and the global economy. Our assessments may not be good either. Iran could be secretly building more missiles and drones.
The Houthis haven’t entered the war yet, but they may.
An F-35 may have been hit by an Iranian anti-air missile. The plane and pilot survived, making it safely to a base in the Middle East. Stealth makes the F-35 harder to detect and hit, but not invisible. If a video given by Iran purporting to be the F-35 getting hit is real, then it looks like a smaller payload delivered by a relatively short-ranged infrared or electro-optically guided weapon, or even a shoulder fired missile. If a radar guided weapon targeted it, the plane would sense it and the pilot would be trying to avoid it. And if larger, longer-range weapons hit it, the plane would not have survived that size of payload.
Ukraine’s drone killers are much cheaper than many US interceptors, and the US and Gulf countries are running out of such interceptors, so want these cheaper Ukranian drone killers to defend against Iranian drones.
Iran was prepared for the US to dominate with “overwhelming” airpower. Iran saw the US take out Saddam’s centralized command with airpower and decided to focus on missiles, drones, and decentralization. Taking out the snake’s head is less effective when there are many snakes with their own weapons, each able to lash out. Iran knew it couldn’t go toe to toe with the US in the skies, so scattered and hid their weapons. Iran knows that the US would not like a long war, so they planned for a long war where a determined Iran can outlast a US that grows weary with the costs of war.
“High-end missile interceptors can run into the millions of dollars per shot.
Many of the drones they are designed to defeat are far cheaper and produced in large numbers — creating what defense officials have described as a growing “math problem” in modern warfare. The U.S. can end up firing expensive missiles at relatively inexpensive drones, a dynamic that becomes harder to sustain if attacks come in waves.
That imbalance is accelerating a push inside the Pentagon to expand a layered counter-drone strategy — combining short-range interceptors, electronic warfare tools and emerging technologies such as high-energy lasers.
For U.S. forces in the region, larger drone waves increase the odds that defenses are stretched, and that even one drone could reach a base or ship.
This marks the first sustained confrontation in which U.S. forces are facing large-scale, state-backed drone waves as a central feature of the battlefield — forcing commanders to adapt in real time and draw on lessons learned from Ukraine, where mass-produced Shahed drones reshaped air defense strategy.”
Israel previously destroyed Iranian mixers needed to make medium range ballistic missiles. This was supposed to keep production offline for at least a year, but the Chinese gave Iran the equipment needed to rebuild the program. Iran decided to build way more of these missiles than before. These are a huge threat to Israel.